TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5WWWLW4th1–0Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5LDLLL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
23
Shots
11
3
Shots on target
3
9
Corners
1
10
Fouls
10
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
527
Passes
331
61%
Possession %
39%
1.82
xG
0.52
52%
24%
24%
1 · TSV HartbergXWolfsberger AC · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
58%
Model pick
TSV Hartberg 52%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.16
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
TSV Hartberg
51.7%
1.93
2.22 Dafabet
45.0%
+6.7
Match result
Draw
24.3%
4.12
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
-1.4
Match result
Wolfsberger AC
24.0%
4.17
3.80 BetVictor
26.3%
-2.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.9%
1.25
1.22 Betano
82.0%
-2.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.1%
4.98
4.60 BetVictor
21.7%
-1.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.7%
1.76
1.67 Betano
59.9%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.3%
2.31
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-0.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.3%
2.92
2.63 BetVictor
38.0%
-3.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.7%
1.52
1.52 Betano
65.8%
-0.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
57.8%
1.73
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-4.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
42.2%
2.37
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+1.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
TSV Hartberg favoured against Wolfsberger AC
Our model makes TSV Hartberg 52% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Wolfsberger AC at 24%. The goal projection is 1.80 for TSV Hartberg against 1.16 for Wolfsberger AC — a substantial edge to TSV Hartberg on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 9%
2-0 8%
1-2 6%
This season
Season records for TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
TSV Hartberg
Metric
Wolfsberger AC
3.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
2.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.60
1.63 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.03
—
Big chances *
—
5.75 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
11.75
Total shots
14.33 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.75
Corners
4.67 (better)
44.0
Possession %
48.0 (better)
408
Passes
426 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.50 (better)
Fouls
16.00
3.75
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33 (better)
Yellow cards
2.67
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
TSV Hartberg v 
Wolfsberger AC