Tromso v KFUM Oslo

6th1–110th

17:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Tromso		KFUM Oslo
15	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	2
1	Corners	2
13	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
702	Passes	411
63%	Possession %	37%
1.38	xG	0.82

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Tromso 57%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.01 – 1.16

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Tromso	56.6%	1.77	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-7.1
Match result	Draw	22.6%	4.43	4.40 Betfair	22.7%	-0.2
Match result	KFUM Oslo	20.9%	4.79	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+6.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.1%	1.20	1.22 Betano	82.0%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.9%	5.92	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-5.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.4%	1.63	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+2.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.6%	2.59	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-5.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.1%	2.56	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.9%	1.64	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.0%	1.67	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.0%	2.50	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-10.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Tromso favoured against KFUM Oslo

Our model makes Tromso 57% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 23% and KFUM Oslo at 21%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Tromso against 1.16 for KFUM Oslo — a substantial edge to Tromso on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Tromso and KFUM Oslo
Tromso		KFUM Oslo
26	Played	26
11-7-8	W-D-L	8-7-11
1.54	Pts / game	1.19
1.65	Goals for / game	1.27
1.54	Goals against / game	1.77
50%	Over 2.5	62%
46%	BTTS	65%
35%	Clean sheets	19%
31%	Failed to score	19%
7-4-2	Home record	6-3-4
4-3-6	Away record	2-4-7
L3	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Tromso · KFUM Oslo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.2	Shots	12.0
4.3	Shots on target	3.8
3.7	Corners	3.4
2.00	Cards	1.60
10.8	Fouls	9.2
51	Possession %	45
1.12	xG	1.45
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	20.8
4.2	Shots on target	6.0
3.7	Corners	6.2
2.00	Cards	2.40
10.8	Fouls	12.0
49	Possession %	55
1.40	xG	2.23
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Tromso	Metric	KFUM Oslo
1.60	Goals scored	1.60
2.00	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
0.87	Expected goals (xG)	1.30 (better)
	Big chances
7.50 (better)	Shots on target	2.75
13.75 (better)	Total shots	8.50
	Touches in opp. box
5.75 (better)	Corners	4.00
55.3 (better)	Possession %	41.5
550 (better)	Passes	387
	Tackles
13.50	Fouls	10.25 (better)
1.33	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.67

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Tromso wins: 1
Draws: 2
KFUM Oslo wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Tromso v KFUM Oslo1–12026-10-18
KFUM Oslo v Tromso0–02026-05-29
Tromso v KFUM Oslo2–02025-08-31

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5