Predicted Edge

Trival Valderas v Leganes

Trival Valderas won 0 of the last 10–1Leganes won 0 of the last 518th
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Trival Valderas 47%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.10

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultTrival Valderas46.5%2.1523.00 Bet3654.3%+42.2
Match resultDraw26.7%3.749.00 Betfair11.1%+15.6
Match resultLeganes26.7%3.741.17 Bet36585.5%-58.7
Total goalsOver 1.574.4%1.341.22 BetVictor82.0%-7.6
Total goalsUnder 1.525.6%3.916.00 Betfair16.7%+8.9
Total goalsOver 2.548.9%2.051.54 BetVictor64.9%-16.1
Total goalsUnder 2.551.1%1.962.63 Betfair38.0%+13.1
Total goalsOver 3.527.0%3.702.45 Betfair40.8%-13.8
Total goalsUnder 3.573.0%1.371.73 Betfair57.8%+15.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes52.9%1.893.00 Bet36533.3%+19.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No47.1%2.121.62 William Hill61.7%-14.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Trival Valderas favoured against Leganes

Our model makes Trival Valderas 47% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 27% and Leganes at 27%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Trival Valderas against 1.10 for Leganes — a clear edge to Trival Valderas on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
2-0 8%
0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Trival Valderas and Leganes
Trival Valderas Leganes
1Played13
0-0-1W-D-L3-3-7
0.00Pts / game0.92
0.00Goals for / game0.85
1.00Goals against / game1.77
0%Over 2.538%
0%BTTS38%
0%Clean sheets23%
100%Failed to score46%
0-0-1Home record2-1-3
0-0-0Away record1-2-4
L1StreakL2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Trival Valderas · Leganes

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots14.4
—Shots on target4.9
—Corners5.1
—Cards4.41
—Fouls17.1
—Possession %49
—xG1.71
—sample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots18.1
—Shots on target6.4
—Corners5.4
—Cards2.89
—Fouls12.9
—Possession %51
—xG1.88
—sample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Trival ValderasMetricLeganes
1.40 (better)Goals scored0.60
1.20 (better)Goals conceded2.40
Expected goals (xG)1.03
Big chances
Shots on target3.60
Total shots12.80
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.20
Possession %44.2
Passes368
Tackles
Fouls17.20
Offsides1.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards4.00
Red cards0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Trival Valderas wins
0
Draws
0
Leganes wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%