Trabzonspor v 
SC Freiburg
Match statistics
| Trabzonspor | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 572 | Passes | 335 |
| 63% | Possession % | 37% |
| 1.67 | xG | 0.99 |
- Over 1.5
- 85%
- Over 2.5
- 64%
- Over 3.5
- 42%
- Both score
- 66%
- Model pick
- Trabzonspor 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.77 – 1.53
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5SC Freiburg +0.25
Why this price?
Back SC Freiburg +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with Bet365 — SC Freiburg starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.99. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Trabzonspor 1.77, SC Freiburg 1.53.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Trabzonspor | 43.2% | 2.32 | 2.50 William Hill | 40.0% | +3.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.75 Betano | 26.7% | -2.8 |
| Match result | SC Freiburg | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.75 Betano | 36.4% | -3.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | +0.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 15.3% | 6.54 | 5.50 Betfair | 18.2% | -2.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.62 Betano | 61.7% | +2.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 35.8% | 2.79 | 2.47 Betano | 40.5% | -4.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 42.1% | 2.38 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | +0.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -3.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 65.6% | 1.52 | 1.50 Betano | 66.7% | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 34.4% | 2.90 | 2.75 Betfair | 36.4% | -1.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Trabzonspor favoured against SC Freiburg
Our model makes Trabzonspor 43% to win this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with the draw at 24% and SC Freiburg at 33%. The goal projection is 1.77 for Trabzonspor against 1.53 for SC Freiburg — a slight edge to Trabzonspor on expected output. A combined 3.31 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 6%
This season
| Trabzonspor | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 9 |
| 8-1-2 | W-D-L | 6-1-2 |
| 2.27 | Pts / game | 2.11 |
| 2.36 | Goals for / game | 2.22 |
| 0.73 | Goals against / game | 1.11 |
| 55% | Over 2.5 | 78% |
| 36% | BTTS | 67% |
| 55% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 5-0-0 | Home record | 4-0-1 |
| 3-1-2 | Away record | 2-1-1 |
| W6 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Trabzonspor · SC Freiburg
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.8 | Shots | 15.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.38 | Cards | 2.09 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 54 | Possession % | 51 |
| 2.15 | xG | 1.41 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 14.3 | Shots | 11.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 2.38 | Cards | 1.56 |
| 15.6 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 46 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.34 | xG | 1.37 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Trabzonspor | Metric | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.40 |
| 2.44 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Shots on target | 3.80 |
| 14.60 | Total shots | 15.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | 6.20 (better) |
| 50.2 | Possession % | 53.6 (better) |
| 438 | Passes | 491 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 | Fouls | 10.80 (better) |
| 1.75 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 | Yellow cards | 1.60 |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Trabzonspor wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- SC Freiburg wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Trabzonspor v SC Freiburg0–12026-11-05
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | FC Lugano won 3 of the last 3 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Panathinaikos won 3 of the last 3 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Twente won 3 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Monaco won 3 of the last 3 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 | Brighton won 2 of the last 3 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Brann won 2 of the last 3 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 3 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Universitatea Craiova won 2 of the last 3 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Mjallby AIF won 2 of the last 3 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 | St. Truiden won 2 of the last 3 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 | Ajax won 2 of the last 3 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | Trabzonspor won 2 of the last 3 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | HNK Hajduk Split won 2 of the last 3 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | SC Freiburg won 2 of the last 3 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | FK Crvena Zvezda won 1 of the last 3 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 3 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 3 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | Gent won 1 of the last 3 |
| 19 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | FC Thun won 1 of the last 3 |
| 20 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Riga won 0 of the last 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | Borac Banja Luka won 1 of the last 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | FK Jablonec won 0 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | Aarhus won 0 of the last 3 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | FC Nordsjaelland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë won 0 of the last 3 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 | Kairat Almaty won 0 of the last 3 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | CSKA Sofia won 0 of the last 3 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | FC Iberia 1999 won 0 of the last 3 |
| 30 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Getafe won 0 of the last 3 |
| 31 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Pafos won 0 of the last 3 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Heart Of Midlothian won 0 of the last 3 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | KuPS won 0 of the last 3 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 | FC Midtjylland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes won 0 of the last 3 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 | Kauno Žalgiris won 0 of the last 3 |