Predicted Edge

Tondela v Alverca

0–02–0 aetAlverca won 2 of the last 511th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Tondela Alverca
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
—Yellow cards—
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Alverca 38%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.65

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes65.4%1.531.83 Bet36554.6%+10.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No34.6%2.89———
Match resultTondela37.2%2.69———
Match resultDraw24.4%4.113.30 Bet36530.3%-5.9
Match resultAlverca38.4%2.60———
Total goalsOver 1.584.4%1.191.29 BetVictor77.5%+6.9
Total goalsUnder 1.515.6%6.413.50 Bet36528.6%-13.0
Total goalsOver 2.563.5%1.571.95 Bet36551.3%+12.2
Total goalsUnder 2.536.5%2.741.85 Bet36554.1%-17.5
Total goalsOver 3.541.3%2.423.40 Bet36529.4%+11.9
Total goalsUnder 3.558.7%1.701.30 Bet36576.9%-18.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Tondela v Alverca: too close to call

Our model makes Tondela 37% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 24% and Alverca at 38%. The goal projection is 1.62 for Tondela against 1.65 for Alverca — almost nothing to Alverca on expected output. A combined 3.27 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 8%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Tondela and Alverca
Tondela Alverca
—Played11
—W-D-L3-3-5
—Pts / game1.09
—Goals for / game1.27
—Goals against / game1.36
—Over 2.545%
—BTTS64%
—Clean sheets9%
—Failed to score27%
—Home record1-3-2
—Away record2-0-3
—StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Tondela · Alverca

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots11.8
—Shots on target3.8
—Corners5.0
—Cards2.75
—Fouls16.8
—Possession %39
—xG1.18
1 matchessample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots13.5
—Shots on target3.5
—Corners5.3
—Cards1.75
—Fouls12.3
—Possession %61
—xG1.28
1 matchessample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
TondelaMetricAlverca
2.20 (better)Goals scored1.40
0.60 (better)Goals conceded1.40
Expected goals (xG)1.30
Big chances
5.00 (better)Shots on target3.80
23.00 (better)Total shots10.80
Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)Corners4.80
66.0 (better)Possession %42.6
Passes357
Tackles
Fouls14.00
Offsides1.60
Throw-ins
3.00Yellow cards2.00 (better)
0.25Red cards0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Tondela wins
0
Draws
2
Alverca wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
33%