Predicted Edge

Tonbridge Angels v Torquay

Tonbridge Angels won 1 of the last 20–1Torquay won 2 of the last 3
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
79%
Over 3.5
60%
Both score
77%
Model pick
Torquay 41%
Likely score
2-2 7%
Expected goals
2.04 – 2.13

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultTonbridge Angels37.8%2.652.70 BetVictor37.0%+0.8
Match resultDraw21.0%4.763.65 Betano27.4%-6.4
Match resultTorquay41.2%2.432.38 BetVictor42.0%-0.8
Total goalsOver 1.592.4%1.081.19 Betano84.0%+8.4
Total goalsUnder 1.57.6%13.204.80 BetVictor20.8%-13.3
Total goalsOver 2.578.6%1.271.73 Bet36557.8%+20.8
Total goalsUnder 2.521.4%4.672.30 BetVictor43.5%-22.1
Total goalsOver 3.559.9%1.672.45 BetVictor40.8%+19.1
Total goalsUnder 3.540.1%2.501.50 BetVictor66.7%-26.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes77.1%1.301.53 BetVictor65.4%+11.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No22.9%4.362.50 BetVictor40.0%-17.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Tonbridge Angels v Torquay: too close to call

Our model makes Tonbridge Angels 38% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and Torquay at 41%. The goal projection is 2.04 for Tonbridge Angels against 2.13 for Torquay — almost nothing to Torquay on expected output. A combined 4.17 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 79% and both teams to score at 77%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-2 7%
1-2 7%
1-1 7%
2-1 7%
2-3 5%

This season

Season records for Tonbridge Angels and Torquay
Tonbridge Angels Torquay
2Played3
1-0-1W-D-L2-0-1
1.50Pts / game2.00
1.00Goals for / game2.33
1.00Goals against / game0.67
50%Over 2.533%
50%BTTS33%
0%Clean sheets33%
50%Failed to score33%
1-0-1Home record1-0-1
0-0-0Away record1-0-0
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Tonbridge Angels · Torquay

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots5.0
—Shots on target3.0
—Corners3.0
—Cards3.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %61
—xG—
—sample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots5.0
—Shots on target1.0
—Corners0.0
—Cards3.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %39
—xG—
—sample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Tonbridge AngelsMetricTorquay
1.60Goals scored3.00 (better)
1.00 (better)Goals conceded1.60
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Tonbridge Angels wins
0
Draws
0
Torquay wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%