Toluca v 
Necaxa
Toluca won 1 of the last 54th3–1Necaxa won 1 of the last 517th
Advised bets
The forecast for this fixture is published at least 24 hours before kick-off.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not published yet. | ||||||
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
This season
| Toluca | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Played | 16 |
| 7-6-3 | W-D-L | 3-4-9 |
| 1.69 | Pts / game | 0.81 |
| 2.19 | Goals for / game | 1.06 |
| 1.31 | Goals against / game | 1.75 |
| 69% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 69% | BTTS | 69% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 6% |
| 6% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 4-2-2 | Home record | 3-1-5 |
| 3-4-1 | Away record | 0-3-4 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Toluca · Necaxa
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.1 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 8.3 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.63 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 13.6 |
| 58 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.34 | xG | 2.02 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 14.9 | Shots | 15.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 6.9 |
| 2.38 | Cards | 1.86 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 42 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.22 | xG | 1.41 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Toluca | Metric | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | ||
| Goals conceded | ||
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | ||
| Total shots | ||
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | ||
| Possession % | ||
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | ||
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Toluca wins
- 3
- Draws
- 0
- Necaxa wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.67
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 67%
- Toluca v Necaxa3–12026-08-03
- Necaxa v Toluca0–32026-02-22
- Toluca v Necaxa3–12025-07-13
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 32 | Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +15 | 30 | Club America won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +11 | 30 | Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | +14 | 27 | Toluca won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 27 | Atlas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | +3 | 25 | Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 23 | Leon won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 22 | CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 22 | Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 21 | Monterrey won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 20 | Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 19 | Puebla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 | Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -8 | 15 | Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 14 | Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 | Necaxa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -21 | 11 | FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5 |