Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5WWWDL14th3–1Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5DLLLL20th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
12
Shots
10
6
Shots on target
2
4
Corners
5
10
Fouls
18
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
1
404
Passes
397
52%
Possession %
48%
1.22
xG
1.20
30%
29%
40%
1 · Tokyo VerdyXAvispa Fukuoka · 2
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
20%
Both score
47%
Model pick
Avispa Fukuoka 40%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.25
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Tokyo Verdy
30.5%
3.28
3.25 Dafabet
30.8%
-0.3
Match result
Draw
29.5%
3.39
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
-2.8
Match result
Avispa Fukuoka
40.0%
2.50
2.50 Dafabet
40.0%
+0.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
67.6%
1.48
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+3.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
32.4%
3.09
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-8.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
40.5%
2.47
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
+3.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
59.5%
1.68
1.50 Betfair
66.7%
-7.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
20.1%
4.97
5.75 BetVictor
17.4%
+2.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
79.9%
1.25
1.16 Betano
86.2%
-6.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
47.1%
2.12
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
+1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
52.9%
1.89
1.65 Betfair
60.6%
-7.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Avispa Fukuoka favoured against Tokyo Verdy
Our model makes Tokyo Verdy 30% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Avispa Fukuoka at 40%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Tokyo Verdy against 1.25 for Avispa Fukuoka — a slight edge to Avispa Fukuoka on expected output. A combined 2.30 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Tokyo Verdy
Metric
Avispa Fukuoka
0.60
Goals scored
1.00 (better)
1.60
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.06
Expected goals (xG)
1.34 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.33 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
11.00 (better)
Total shots
7.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.33 (better)
Corners
2.00
49.0 (better)
Possession %
28.5
374 (better)
Passes
222
—
Tackles
—
16.67
Fouls
12.50 (better)
1.00
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33 (better)
Yellow cards
3.00
—
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Tokyo Verdy v 
Avispa Fukuoka