Tianjin Teda won 3 of the last 5LLWWW9th1–3SHANGHAI SIPG won 4 of the last 5WWWWD5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Tianjin Teda
SHANGHAI SIPG
13
Shots
10
5
Shots on target
5
3
Corners
5
10
Fouls
7
2
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
1
3
Offsides
4
357
Passes
453
45%
Possession %
55%
—
xG
—
39%
28%
34%
1 · Tianjin TedaXSHANGHAI SIPG · 2
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Tianjin Teda 39%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.25
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Tianjin Teda
38.6%
2.59
2.95 Dafabet
33.9%
+4.7
Match result
Draw
27.6%
3.62
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
-0.1
Match result
SHANGHAI SIPG
33.8%
2.96
2.60 Bet365
38.5%
-4.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.8%
1.35
1.23 Betano
81.3%
-7.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.2%
3.82
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
+3.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
48.1%
2.08
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-9.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
51.9%
1.93
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
+4.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
26.3%
3.80
2.90 BetVictor
34.5%
-8.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
73.7%
1.36
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
+4.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
53.4%
1.87
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-8.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.6%
2.15
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+4.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Tianjin Teda v SHANGHAI SIPG: too close to call
Our model makes Tianjin Teda 39% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 28% and SHANGHAI SIPG at 34%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Tianjin Teda against 1.25 for SHANGHAI SIPG — a slight edge to Tianjin Teda on expected output. A combined 2.60 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Tianjin Teda
Metric
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.20
Goals scored
2.80 (better)
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.06
Expected goals (xG)
1.69 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.60
Shots on target
6.50 (better)
9.60
Total shots
14.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.60
Corners
6.50 (better)
35.2
Possession %
57.5 (better)
301
Passes
516 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.60
Fouls
11.50 (better)
1.50 (better)
Offsides
2.25
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.25 (better)
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Tianjin Teda v 
SHANGHAI SIPG