Predicted Edge

Thame United v Eastbourne Borough

Thame United won 2 of the last 40–1Eastbourne Borough won 3 of the last 4
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
81%
Over 3.5
63%
Both score
79%
Model pick
Eastbourne Borough 45%
Likely score
2-2 7%
Expected goals
2.04 – 2.31

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultThame United34.7%2.885.50 BetVictor18.2%+16.5
Match resultDraw20.3%4.914.50 Betano22.2%-1.9
Match resultEastbourne Borough44.9%2.231.73 Bet36557.8%-12.9
Total goalsOver 1.593.5%1.071.09 Betano91.7%+1.7
Total goalsUnder 1.56.5%15.328.00 BetVictor12.5%-6.0
Total goalsOver 2.580.9%1.241.30 Bet36576.9%+4.0
Total goalsUnder 2.519.1%5.243.60 BetVictor27.8%-8.7
Total goalsOver 3.563.2%1.581.70 BetVictor58.8%+4.4
Total goalsUnder 3.536.8%2.722.05 BetVictor48.8%-12.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes78.7%1.271.62 BetVictor61.7%+17.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No21.3%4.703.25 BetVictor30.8%-9.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eastbourne Borough favoured against Thame United

Our model makes Thame United 35% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 20% and Eastbourne Borough at 45%. The goal projection is 2.04 for Thame United against 2.31 for Eastbourne Borough — a clear edge to Eastbourne Borough on expected output. A combined 4.35 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 81% and both teams to score at 79%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-2 7%
1-2 7%
1-1 6%
2-1 6%
2-3 6%

This season

Season records for Thame United and Eastbourne Borough
Thame United Eastbourne Borough
4Played4
2-1-1W-D-L3-0-1
1.75Pts / game2.25
2.25Goals for / game2.00
1.75Goals against / game1.25
75%Over 2.575%
75%BTTS25%
0%Clean sheets50%
25%Failed to score25%
1-1-1Home record1-0-0
1-0-0Away record2-0-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Thame United · Eastbourne Borough

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Thame UnitedMetricEastbourne Borough
2.40Goals scored3.20 (better)
1.60Goals conceded1.00 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Thame United wins
0
Draws
0
Eastbourne Borough wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%