Telstar won 1 of the last 5DWLLD16th0–2Almere City FC won 1 of the last 1W
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Telstar
Almere City FC
15
Shots
10
1
Shots on target
4
7
Corners
5
6
Fouls
10
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
2
640
Passes
318
67%
Possession %
33%
—
xG
—
35%
23%
42%
1 · TelstarXAlmere City FC · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
47%
Both score
69%
Model pick
Almere City FC 42%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.87
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Telstar
34.8%
2.88
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-12.9
Match result
Draw
22.9%
4.36
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
-2.7
Match result
Almere City FC
42.3%
2.36
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+12.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
87.3%
1.15
1.14 Betano
87.7%
-0.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.7%
7.89
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-4.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
68.7%
1.46
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-0.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
31.3%
3.20
2.75 BetVictor
36.4%
-5.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
47.3%
2.12
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+1.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
52.7%
1.90
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-5.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
69.2%
1.45
1.40 William Hill
71.4%
-2.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
30.8%
3.25
2.88 BetVictor
34.7%
-3.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Almere City FC favoured against Telstar
Our model makes Telstar 35% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 23% and Almere City FC at 42%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Telstar against 1.87 for Almere City FC — a slight edge to Almere City FC on expected output. A combined 3.54 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Telstar
Metric
Almere City FC
1.00
Goals scored
1.60 (better)
1.60
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
1.12
Expected goals (xG)
1.86 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.60
Shots on target
5.20 (better)
14.20
Total shots
15.20 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.40
46.4
Possession %
47.6 (better)
434 (better)
Passes
422
—
Tackles
—
10.20 (better)
Fouls
12.00
1.75 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.40
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Telstar v 
Almere City FC