Predicted Edge

Tavernes v Valencia

Tavernes won 0 of the last 30–6Valencia won 1 of the last 519th
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
21%
Both score
48%
Model pick
Valencia 41%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.29

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultTavernes29.6%3.38101.00 Betfair1.0%+28.6
Match resultDraw29.1%3.4341.00 Bet3652.4%+26.7
Match resultValencia41.2%2.421.01 Bet36599.0%-57.8
Total goalsOver 1.568.4%1.46———
Total goalsUnder 1.531.6%3.1751.00 Bet3652.0%+29.6
Total goalsOver 2.541.4%2.421.01 Bet36599.0%-57.6
Total goalsUnder 2.558.6%1.7123.00 Bet3654.3%+54.2
Total goalsOver 3.520.8%4.801.05 Bet36595.2%-74.4
Total goalsUnder 3.579.1%1.2611.00 Bet3659.1%+70.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes47.7%2.102.75 Bet36536.4%+11.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No52.3%1.911.44 Betfair69.4%-17.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Valencia favoured against Tavernes

Our model makes Tavernes 30% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 29% and Valencia at 41%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Tavernes against 1.29 for Valencia — a slight edge to Valencia on expected output. A combined 2.34 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 14%
0-1 12%
0-0 10%
1-0 9%
1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Tavernes and Valencia
Tavernes Valencia
3Played12
0-2-1W-D-L2-3-7
0.67Pts / game0.75
0.33Goals for / game0.67
2.33Goals against / game1.67
33%Over 2.550%
33%BTTS33%
33%Clean sheets33%
67%Failed to score50%
0-1-1Home record0-2-5
0-1-0Away record2-1-2
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Tavernes · Valencia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots10.9
—Shots on target3.3
—Corners3.9
—Cards3.33
—Fouls15.1
—Possession %42
—xG1.11
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots17.0
—Shots on target5.6
—Corners5.9
—Cards3.05
—Fouls10.1
—Possession %58
—xG1.56
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (2 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
TavernesMetricValencia
0.50Goals scored1.00 (better)
0.50 (better)Goals conceded1.20
Expected goals (xG)1.10
Big chances
Shots on target2.60
Total shots12.20
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.20
Possession %49.6
Passes423
Tackles
Fouls11.80
Offsides2.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.80
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Tavernes wins
0
Draws
0
Valencia wins
1
Goals / game
6.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%