SV Elversberg v SV Darmstadt 98

7th0–217th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
SV Elversberg		SV Darmstadt 98
26	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	2
18	Corners	2
11	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
651	Passes	239
74%	Possession %	26%
1.69	xG	0.54

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: SV Elversberg 49%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.05 – 1.52

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

SV Elversberg -0.75

1.55Bet365 · fair 1.50 · qualifies at 1.55+ · 1.49u

Why this price?

Back SV Elversberg -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.55 with Bet365 — SV Elversberg must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 82%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.50. The offered 1.55 implies only 65%, so the price is 3.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.49 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: SV Elversberg 2.05, SV Darmstadt 98 1.52.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	SV Elversberg	49.4%	2.02	1.46 Dafabet	68.5%	-19.0
Match result	Draw	22.2%	4.50	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+3.0
Match result	SV Darmstadt 98	28.3%	3.53	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+14.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.5%	1.14	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.5%	8.02	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-2.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.1%	1.45	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	30.9%	3.24	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	-5.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.8%	2.09	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+2.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.2%	1.91	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-5.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.5%	1.46	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+10.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.5%	3.17	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-12.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SV Elversberg favoured against SV Darmstadt 98

Our model makes SV Elversberg 49% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 22% and SV Darmstadt 98 at 28%. The goal projection is 2.05 for SV Elversberg against 1.52 for SV Darmstadt 98 — a substantial edge to SV Elversberg on expected output. A combined 3.57 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for SV Elversberg and SV Darmstadt 98
SV Elversberg		SV Darmstadt 98
9	Played	11
4-1-4	W-D-L	2-3-6
1.44	Pts / game	0.82
1.89	Goals for / game	0.82
2.00	Goals against / game	1.91
78%	Over 2.5	55%
67%	BTTS	45%
11%	Clean sheets	9%
33%	Failed to score	55%
3-0-1	Home record	2-3-1
1-1-3	Away record	0-0-5
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. SV Elversberg · SV Darmstadt 98

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.9	Shots	11.5
4.4	Shots on target	2.5
6.6	Corners	4.2
1.43	Cards	2.33
11.9	Fouls	9.2
54	Possession %	39
1.46	xG	0.96
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.7	Shots	17.2
4.4	Shots on target	5.0
6.6	Corners	8.5
2.31	Cards	2.33
13.0	Fouls	11.8
46	Possession %	61
1.97	xG	1.55
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SV Elversberg	Metric	SV Darmstadt 98
1.20	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.49 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.25
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.25 (better)
10.50	Total shots	12.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	5.00 (better)
46.0 (better)	Possession %	44.8
410 (better)	Passes	389
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	12.00
3.50	Offsides	2.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

SV Elversberg wins: 0
Draws: 2
SV Darmstadt 98 wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

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