Sunderland v 
Brentford
Match statistics
| Sunderland | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 303 | Passes | 589 |
| 33% | Possession % | 67% |
| 2.41 | xG | 2.77 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- Brentford 52%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.04 – 1.71
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Brentford 0
Why this price?
Back Brentford 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.92 with Bet365 — Brentford to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 70% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 58%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.72. The offered 1.92 implies only 52%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sunderland 1.04, Brentford 1.71.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sunderland | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3.70 Dafabet | 27.0% | -4.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.1% | 3.99 | 3.85 Betano | 26.0% | -0.9 |
| Match result | Brentford | 52.4% | 1.91 | 2.60 Bet365 | 38.5% | +14.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | 1.27 BetVictor | 78.7% | -2.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | 4.20 Betfair | 23.8% | -0.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -3.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | +1.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -3.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -6.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 46.4% | 2.15 | 2.25 Betfair | 44.4% | +2.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Brentford favoured against Sunderland
Our model makes Sunderland 22% to win this EFL Cup fixture, with the draw at 25% and Brentford at 52%. The goal projection is 1.04 for Sunderland against 1.71 for Brentford — a substantial edge to Brentford on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 10%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-2 9%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Sunderland | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 2-2-6 | W-D-L | 3-5-2 |
| 0.80 | Pts / game | 1.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.70 | Goals against / game | 1.10 |
| 30% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 40% | BTTS | 60% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 2-1-2 | Home record | 3-1-1 |
| 0-1-4 | Away record | 0-4-1 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sunderland · Brentford
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.4 | Shots | 11.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 3.6 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 1.76 | Cards | 2.71 |
| 10.4 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 44 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.71 | xG | 1.35 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 15.3 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.31 | Cards | 1.86 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 56 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.90 | xG | 1.80 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Sunderland | Metric | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.83 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.27 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.40 | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 14.80 (better) | Total shots | 13.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Corners | 3.40 |
| 49.6 (better) | Possession % | 45.2 |
| 402 | Passes | 413 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.40 (better) | Fouls | 13.00 |
| 2.25 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.25 (better) | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sunderland wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Brentford wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.25
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 75%
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