Sudtirol v Cesena

11th1–113th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sudtirol		Cesena
16	Shots	25
5	Shots on target	7
2	Corners	4
10	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	6
433	Passes	510
46%	Possession %	54%
1.43	xG	2.97

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Sudtirol 45%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 0.93

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sudtirol	45.2%	2.21	2.35 Betano	42.6%	+2.6
Match result	Draw	29.3%	3.41	3.35 Dafabet	29.9%	-0.6
Match result	Cesena	25.5%	3.92	3.25 Dafabet	30.8%	-5.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.4%	1.51	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-6.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.6%	2.98	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+2.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.1%	2.56	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	-7.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.9%	1.64	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+3.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.1%	5.25	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-5.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.9%	1.24	1.29 Betano	77.5%	+3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.0%	2.22	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-7.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.0%	1.82	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+5.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sudtirol favoured against Cesena

Our model makes Sudtirol 45% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 29% and Cesena at 26%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Sudtirol against 0.93 for Cesena — a clear edge to Sudtirol on expected output. A combined 2.25 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 11%; 2-0 9%; 0-1 9%

This season

Season records for Sudtirol and Cesena
Sudtirol		Cesena
11	Played	11
3-6-2	W-D-L	3-6-2
1.36	Pts / game	1.36
1.18	Goals for / game	1.09
1.09	Goals against / game	1.27
27%	Over 2.5	36%
55%	BTTS	73%
27%	Clean sheets	9%
27%	Failed to score	18%
2-4-0	Home record	2-4-0
1-2-2	Away record	1-2-2
D2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sudtirol · Cesena

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.1	Shots	13.8
3.9	Shots on target	3.7
3.4	Corners	4.5
2.33	Cards	2.17
13.1	Fouls	12.5
52	Possession %	45
1.33	xG	1.38
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	15.8
4.9	Shots on target	4.8
5.1	Corners	5.5
2.57	Cards	1.67
12.6	Fouls	10.0
48	Possession %	55
1.71	xG	1.28
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sudtirol	Metric	Cesena
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.80	Expected goals (xG)	1.33 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	3.60 (better)
9.25	Total shots	15.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.25	Corners	5.80 (better)
45.5	Possession %	47.8 (better)
463 (better)	Passes	430
	Tackles
13.25	Fouls	12.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	4.00
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sudtirol wins: 0
Draws: 2
Cesena wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 67%

Sudtirol v Cesena1–12026-10-31
Cesena v Sudtirol1–12026-04-06
Sudtirol v Cesena0–12025-10-25

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5