Sturm Graz v Ried

5th2–26th

13:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sturm Graz		Ried
27	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	4
8	Corners	2
8	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
327	Passes	437
44%	Possession %	56%
1.98	xG	1.39

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 44%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Sturm Graz 49%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 0.96

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.6%	1.94	2.60 Betfair	38.5%	+13.1
Match result	Sturm Graz	49.1%	2.04	1.85 Betano	54.1%	-4.9
Match result	Draw	27.3%	3.66	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+4.2
Match result	Ried	23.6%	4.24	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+2.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.9%	1.41	1.14 Bet365	87.7%	-16.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.1%	3.44	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	+13.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.4%	2.25	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-21.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.6%	1.80	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+20.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.3%	4.30	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-19.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.7%	1.30	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+18.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.4%	2.06	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-15.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sturm Graz favoured against Ried

Our model makes Sturm Graz 49% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Ried at 24%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Sturm Graz against 0.96 for Ried — a substantial edge to Sturm Graz on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 12%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Sturm Graz and Ried
Sturm Graz		Ried
12	Played	12
5-4-3	W-D-L	4-4-4
1.58	Pts / game	1.33
1.83	Goals for / game	1.75
1.42	Goals against / game	1.83
50%	Over 2.5	67%
67%	BTTS	92%
25%	Clean sheets	8%
8%	Failed to score	0%
3-2-1	Home record	3-1-2
2-2-2	Away record	1-3-2
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sturm Graz · Ried

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.2	Shots	12.3
5.3	Shots on target	5.3
6.2	Corners	3.5
2.17	Cards	2.17
11.3	Fouls	10.2
50	Possession %	46
1.88	xG	2.03
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7	Shots	20.7
3.8	Shots on target	5.7
2.8	Corners	6.8
1.67	Cards	1.70
13.2	Fouls	11.3
50	Possession %	54
1.47	xG	1.92
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sturm Graz	Metric	Ried
1.00	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.18	Expected goals (xG)	2.55 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
11.00	Total shots	12.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	3.25
41.3 (better)	Possession %	38.8
307	Passes	339 (better)
	Tackles
15.25	Fouls	8.50 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sturm Graz wins: 2
Draws: 1
Ried wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Sturm Graz v Ried2–22026-10-25
Sturm Graz v Ried1–02026-02-08
Ried v Sturm Graz1–32025-08-16

Austrian Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	+30	33	Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	9	3	0	+24	30	Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5
3	Lask Linz	12	8	1	3	+15	25	Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	+4	20	TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5
5	Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	+5	19	Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	-1	16	Ried won 2 of the last 5
7	WSG Wattens	12	3	4	5	-3	13	WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	-15	11	Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	-9	10	SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	-20	10	Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5
11	Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	-12	8	Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	-18	6	Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5