Sturm Graz v Grazer AK

5th6–110th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sturm Graz		Grazer AK
23	Shots	12
10	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	2
8	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	1
320	Passes	260
55%	Possession %	45%
3.58	xG	0.64

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Sturm Graz 56%
Likely score: 1-0 13%
Expected goals: 1.66 – 0.83

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Sturm Graz -0.5

1.70Betano · fair 1.53 · qualifies at 1.57+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Sturm Graz -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.70 with Betano — Sturm Graz must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 56% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 72%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.53. The offered 1.70 implies only 59%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sturm Graz 1.66, Grazer AK 0.83.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.5%	1.83	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+9.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.1%	4.15	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	-12.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.9%	1.32	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+7.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.5%	2.15	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-12.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.5%	1.87	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	+9.1
Match result	Sturm Graz	56.3%	1.77	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	+2.3
Match result	Draw	25.7%	3.90	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+0.7
Match result	Grazer AK	18.0%	5.55	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	-2.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.8%	1.39	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-10.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.2%	3.55	4.40 BetVictor	22.7%	+5.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.5%	2.20	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-13.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sturm Graz favoured against Grazer AK

Our model makes Sturm Graz 56% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Grazer AK at 18%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Sturm Graz against 0.83 for Grazer AK — a substantial edge to Sturm Graz on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 13%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Sturm Graz and Grazer AK
Sturm Graz		Grazer AK
12	Played	12
5-4-3	W-D-L	2-4-6
1.58	Pts / game	0.83
1.83	Goals for / game	0.75
1.42	Goals against / game	2.42
50%	Over 2.5	67%
67%	BTTS	50%
25%	Clean sheets	17%
8%	Failed to score	50%
3-2-1	Home record	1-3-1
2-2-2	Away record	1-1-5
L1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sturm Graz · Grazer AK

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.2	Shots	14.4
5.3	Shots on target	4.2
6.2	Corners	4.6
2.17	Cards	2.00
11.3	Fouls	14.0
50	Possession %	42
1.88	xG	1.25
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7	Shots	17.4
3.8	Shots on target	6.0
2.8	Corners	6.0
1.67	Cards	1.60
13.2	Fouls	9.6
50	Possession %	58
1.47	xG	2.09
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sturm Graz	Metric	Grazer AK
1.40	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
2.17 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.94
	Big chances
4.75 (better)	Shots on target	4.67
13.00	Total shots	14.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	2.67
40.3	Possession %	40.7 (better)
297	Passes	311 (better)
	Tackles
14.25 (better)	Fouls	15.67
2.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	2.33 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sturm Graz wins: 3
Draws: 0
Grazer AK wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Sturm Graz v Grazer AK6–12026-10-18
Sturm Graz v Grazer AK2–12025-12-07
Grazer AK v Sturm Graz0–32025-08-30

Austrian Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	+30	33	Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	9	3	0	+24	30	Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5
3	Lask Linz	12	8	1	3	+15	25	Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	+4	20	TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5
5	Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	+5	19	Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	-1	16	Ried won 2 of the last 5
7	WSG Wattens	12	3	4	5	-3	13	WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	-15	11	Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	-9	10	SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	-20	10	Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5
11	Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	-12	8	Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	-18	6	Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5