Start v Sandefjord

16th1–012th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Start		Sandefjord
12	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	0
5	Corners	5
16	Fouls	16
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
260	Passes	542
33%	Possession %	67%
1.19	xG	1.49

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Sandefjord 46%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.57

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Sandefjord 0

2.29Marathonbet · fair 2.05 · qualifies at 2.11+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Sandefjord 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.29 with Marathonbet — Sandefjord to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 62% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 40%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.05. The offered 2.29 implies only 44%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Start 1.19, Sandefjord 1.57.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Start	28.3%	3.53	2.42 Dafabet	41.3%	-13.0
Match result	Draw	26.1%	3.83	3.85 Betano	26.0%	+0.1
Match result	Sandefjord	45.6%	2.19	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+13.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.9%	1.30	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-6.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.1%	4.33	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.3%	1.91	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-9.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.7%	2.10	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+6.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.1%	3.32	2.63 BetVictor	38.0%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.9%	1.43	1.53 Betfair	65.4%	+4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.8%	1.79	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.2%	2.27	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+6.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sandefjord favoured against Start

Our model makes Start 28% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 26% and Sandefjord at 46%. The goal projection is 1.19 for Start against 1.57 for Sandefjord — a clear edge to Sandefjord on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Start and Sandefjord
Start		Sandefjord
26	Played	25
5-4-17	W-D-L	7-6-12
0.73	Pts / game	1.08
1.04	Goals for / game	1.04
2.27	Goals against / game	1.36
58%	Over 2.5	44%
58%	BTTS	48%
12%	Clean sheets	24%
31%	Failed to score	36%
4-3-6	Home record	3-5-4
1-1-11	Away record	4-1-8
L2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Start · Sandefjord

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	17.0
2.2	Shots on target	5.2
5.0	Corners	4.4
1.70	Cards	1.50
11.6	Fouls	12.8
42	Possession %	58
1.32	xG	1.70
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.4	Shots	13.4
5.8	Shots on target	4.6
4.8	Corners	5.2
1.20	Cards	2.90
10.6	Fouls	14.0
58	Possession %	42
2.49	xG	1.34
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Start	Metric	Sandefjord
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.75
2.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.12	Expected goals (xG)	1.21 (better)
	Big chances
2.50	Shots on target	4.67 (better)
15.50 (better)	Total shots	12.67
	Touches in opp. box
4.50 (better)	Corners	2.67
49.5 (better)	Possession %	45.0
488 (better)	Passes	462
	Tackles
10.50 (better)	Fouls	12.00
2.00	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
0.50	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Start wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sandefjord wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 0%

Start v Sandefjord1–02026-10-25
Sandefjord v Start3–02026-09-20

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	25	19	2	4	+38	59	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	25	19	2	4	+38	59	Bodo/Glimt won 3 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Molde	25	13	4	8	+20	43	Molde won 2 of the last 5
5	Lillestrom	25	13	3	9	+3	42	Lillestrom won 3 of the last 5
6	Tromso	25	11	7	7	+5	40	Tromso won 1 of the last 5
7	Brann	25	10	2	13	+3	32	Brann won 2 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	25	9	5	11	-3	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	25	8	7	10	-7	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	25	8	7	10	-9	31	KFUM Oslo won 2 of the last 5
11	Fredrikstad	25	8	5	12	-15	29	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
12	Sandefjord	25	7	6	12	-8	27	Sandefjord won 2 of the last 5
13	Ham-Kam	25	7	6	12	-18	27	Ham-Kam won 1 of the last 5
14	Aalesund	25	5	9	11	-14	24	Aalesund won 2 of the last 5
15	Kristiansund BK	25	6	5	14	-22	23	Kristiansund BK won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5