Start v Lillestrom

16th0–14th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Start		Lillestrom
12	Shots	22
1	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	5
11	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
449	Passes	472
49%	Possession %	51%
1.37	xG	2.10

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Lillestrom 46%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.72

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Start	29.4%	3.40	2.90 Dafabet	34.5%	-5.1
Match result	Draw	24.7%	4.06	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-1.0
Match result	Lillestrom	46.0%	2.18	2.40 William Hill	41.7%	+4.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.5%	1.23	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.5%	5.40	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.0%	1.70	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.0%	2.44	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.6%	2.73	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.4%	1.58	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.1%	1.64	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-5.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.9%	2.57	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	+1.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lillestrom favoured against Start

Our model makes Start 29% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 25% and Lillestrom at 46%. The goal projection is 1.34 for Start against 1.72 for Lillestrom — a clear edge to Lillestrom on expected output. A combined 3.06 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 7%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Start and Lillestrom
Start		Lillestrom
26	Played	26
5-4-17	W-D-L	14-3-9
0.73	Pts / game	1.73
1.04	Goals for / game	1.50
2.27	Goals against / game	1.35
58%	Over 2.5	54%
58%	BTTS	46%
12%	Clean sheets	31%
31%	Failed to score	27%
4-3-6	Home record	7-1-5
1-1-11	Away record	7-2-4
L2	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Start · Lillestrom

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.2	Shots	15.5
2.2	Shots on target	5.3
4.7	Corners	6.2
1.90	Cards	1.33
11.8	Fouls	10.3
40	Possession %	47
1.21	xG	1.84
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.0	Shots	18.7
5.7	Shots on target	6.3
5.0	Corners	5.5
1.33	Cards	1.37
10.3	Fouls	12.0
60	Possession %	54
2.42	xG	1.80
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Start	Metric	Lillestrom
2.00	Goals scored	2.00
3.00	Goals conceded	2.00 (better)
1.32	Expected goals (xG)	1.32
	Big chances
2.67	Shots on target	3.75 (better)
13.33 (better)	Total shots	10.75
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	3.50
43.7	Possession %	44.0 (better)
423	Passes	435 (better)
	Tackles
10.33	Fouls	9.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Start wins: 0
Draws: 0
Lillestrom wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Start v Lillestrom0–12026-11-01
Lillestrom v Start3–12026-04-11

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5