Predicted Edge

Stafford Rangers v Gateshead

Stafford Rangers won 2 of the last 55–0Gateshead won 0 of the last 2

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Stafford Rangers Gateshead
18Shots5
11Shots on target3
7Corners1
—Fouls—
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
61%Possession %39%
—xG—
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Stafford Rangers 47%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.30

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultStafford Rangers46.9%2.13———
Match resultDraw24.7%4.05———
Match resultGateshead28.4%3.52———
Total goalsOver 1.581.0%1.24———
Total goalsUnder 1.519.0%5.25———
Total goalsOver 2.558.2%1.72———
Total goalsUnder 2.541.8%2.39———
Total goalsOver 3.535.8%2.80———
Total goalsUnder 3.564.2%1.56———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes60.3%1.66———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No39.7%2.52———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Stafford Rangers favoured against Gateshead

Our model makes Stafford Rangers 47% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 25% and Gateshead at 28%. The goal projection is 1.72 for Stafford Rangers against 1.30 for Gateshead — a clear edge to Stafford Rangers on expected output. A combined 3.02 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-0 8%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Stafford Rangers and Gateshead
Stafford Rangers Gateshead
7Played2
4-3-0W-D-L0-1-1
2.14Pts / game0.50
2.43Goals for / game0.50
1.00Goals against / game3.00
71%Over 2.550%
71%BTTS50%
29%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score50%
3-2-0Home record0-1-0
1-1-0Away record0-0-1
D1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Stafford Rangers · Gateshead

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0Shots8.5
6.8Shots on target5.5
5.3Corners5.5
2.50Cards1.50
22.0Fouls—
46Possession %53
—xG—
4 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0Shots13.5
6.8Shots on target6.5
6.5Corners4.0
1.75Cards1.00
14.0Fouls—
54Possession %48
—xG—
4 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Stafford RangersMetricGateshead
1.40 (better)Goals scored0.60
1.80Goals conceded1.60 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
5.00Shots on target8.00 (better)
11.00Total shots12.00 (better)
Touches in opp. box
3.00Corners10.00 (better)
38.0Possession %66.0 (better)
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
2.50Yellow cards1.00 (better)
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Stafford Rangers wins
1
Draws
1
Gateshead wins
0
Goals / game
3.50
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
50%