Stade Brestois 29 v 
Angers
Match statistics
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 528 | Passes | 431 |
| 54% | Possession % | 46% |
| 3.90 | xG | 1.45 |
- Over 1.5
- 75%
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Over 3.5
- 28%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Stade Brestois 29 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.46 – 1.21
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Stade Brestois 29 -0.5
Why this price?
Back Stade Brestois 29 -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.93 with Betano — Stade Brestois 29 must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 67%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.76. The offered 1.93 implies only 52%, so the price is 9.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.46, Angers 1.21.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Stade Brestois 29 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.05 Betfair | 48.8% | -6.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.2% | 3.67 | 3.80 Dafabet | 26.3% | +0.9 |
| Match result | Angers | 30.6% | 3.27 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | +5.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.25 Bet365 | 80.0% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 24.8% | 4.04 | 4.50 Bet365 | 22.2% | +2.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | -7.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | 2.15 Betano | 46.5% | +3.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3.05 Betano | 32.8% | -5.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | +5.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.70 William Hill | 58.8% | -4.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | +2.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Stade Brestois 29 favoured against Angers
Our model makes Stade Brestois 29 42% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 27% and Angers at 31%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.21 for Angers — a clear edge to Stade Brestois 29 on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-0 8%
- 0-1 8%
This season
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 4-3-3 | W-D-L | 2-2-6 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 0.80 |
| 1.80 | Goals for / game | 0.90 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.90 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 70% | BTTS | 40% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 2-1-2 | Home record | 1-1-4 |
| 2-2-1 | Away record | 1-1-2 |
| W2 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Stade Brestois 29 · Angers
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.7 | Shots | 10.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 2.6 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.43 | Cards | 1.92 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 44 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.73 | xG | 1.29 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 12.3 | Shots | 17.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 6.1 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.06 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 12.1 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 56 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.26 | xG | 2.09 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Stade Brestois 29 | Metric | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.94 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.61 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Shots on target | 3.00 |
| 19.20 (better) | Total shots | 15.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.60 | Corners | 7.60 (better) |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 51.2 (better) |
| 403 | Passes | 426 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.00 | Fouls | 10.80 (better) |
| 2.20 | Offsides | 1.20 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Stade Brestois 29 wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Angers wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Stade Brestois 29 v Angers5–12026-10-10
- Stade Brestois 29 v Angers1–12026-05-17
- Angers v Stade Brestois 290–22025-09-28
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 23 | Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 21 | Lille won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 | Paris FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | +8 | 18 | Marseille won 5 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 17 | Lyon won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 | Nice won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Monaco won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 | Rennes won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 15 | Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Lorient won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 13 | Lens won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 13 | Toulouse won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 | Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 | Auxerre won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 | Le Mans won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 | Angers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 | Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 2 | Le Havre won 0 of the last 5 |