SSV Jeddeloh won 1 of the last 2LW0–2Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5WWWDW1st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
SSV Jeddeloh
Hertha BSC
6
Shots
33
0
Shots on target
4
1
Corners
14
8
Fouls
8
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
253
Passes
587
29%
Possession %
71%
0.97
xG
3.19
30%
21%
48%
1 · SSV JeddelohXHertha BSC · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
55%
Both score
74%
Model pick
Hertha BSC 48%
Likely score
1-2 8%
Expected goals
1.74 – 2.20
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
SSV Jeddeloh
30.5%
3.28
34.00 Bet365
2.9%
+27.5
Match result
Draw
21.1%
4.73
15.00 Bet365
6.7%
+14.5
Match result
Hertha BSC
48.4%
2.07
1.09 Betano
91.7%
-43.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
90.7%
1.10
1.02 Bet365
98.0%
-7.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
9.3%
10.81
17.00 Bet365
5.9%
+3.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
75.3%
1.33
1.13 Betano
88.5%
-13.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
24.7%
4.04
7.00 BetVictor
14.3%
+10.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
55.4%
1.80
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-19.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
44.6%
2.24
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
+16.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
73.6%
1.36
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+18.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
26.4%
3.79
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-23.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hertha BSC favoured against SSV Jeddeloh
Our model makes SSV Jeddeloh 30% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 21% and Hertha BSC at 48%. The goal projection is 1.74 for SSV Jeddeloh against 2.20 for Hertha BSC — a clear edge to Hertha BSC on expected output. A combined 3.94 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SSV Jeddeloh
Metric
Hertha BSC
1.80
Goals scored
1.80
3.20
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
2.00
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
8.67
—
Total shots
20.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
5.33
—
Possession %
50.0
—
Passes
429
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
11.00
—
Offsides
1.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
2.00
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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SSV Jeddeloh v 
Hertha BSC