Sporting Gijon v Celta de Vigo II

7th3–216th

14:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sporting Gijon		Celta de Vigo II
13	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	8
6	Corners	6
14	Fouls	10
5	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	1
468	Passes	482
45%	Possession %	55%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Sporting Gijon 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.12

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sporting Gijon	45.1%	2.22	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-12.1
Match result	Draw	27.3%	3.67	—	—	—
Match result	Celta de Vigo II	27.6%	3.62	5.80 Betano	17.2%	+10.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.1%	1.35	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.9%	3.87	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+2.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.3%	2.07	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-3.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.7%	1.94	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+0.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.5%	3.77	3.40 BetVictor	29.4%	-2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.5%	1.36	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.8%	1.89	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	-1.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.2%	2.12	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-2.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sporting Gijon favoured against Celta de Vigo II

Our model makes Sporting Gijon 45% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 27% and Celta de Vigo II at 28%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Sporting Gijon against 1.12 for Celta de Vigo II — a clear edge to Sporting Gijon on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon		Celta de Vigo II
13	Played	13
7-1-5	W-D-L	3-4-6
1.69	Pts / game	1.00
1.08	Goals for / game	1.46
1.15	Goals against / game	1.92
38%	Over 2.5	62%
31%	BTTS	69%
38%	Clean sheets	15%
38%	Failed to score	23%
3-1-3	Home record	2-3-2
4-0-2	Away record	1-1-4
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sporting Gijon · Celta de Vigo II

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	10.5
4.6	Shots on target	4.1
4.9	Corners	3.3
3.71	Cards	2.91
13.0	Fouls	11.4
51	Possession %	47
1.42	xG	1.12
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.4	Shots	15.3
4.9	Shots on target	5.3
5.4	Corners	6.6
2.86	Cards	2.54
11.9	Fouls	13.0
49	Possession %	53
1.08	xG	1.95
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sporting Gijon	Metric	Celta de Vigo II
0.80	Goals scored	0.80
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.25 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.79
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	3.80 (better)
11.00	Total shots	13.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.40	Corners	4.00 (better)
51.2	Possession %	51.6 (better)
433	Passes	467 (better)
	Tackles
11.40 (better)	Fouls	11.80
1.25 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
3.40	Yellow cards	2.40 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sporting Gijon wins: 1
Draws: 0
Celta de Vigo II wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Sporting Gijon v Celta de Vigo II3–22026-10-04

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5