Spennymoor Town v Chester

4–1

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Spennymoor Town		Chester
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Yellow cards	—
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: Spennymoor Town 45%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.79 – 1.47

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Spennymoor Town	44.9%	2.23	2.90 Bet365	34.5%	+10.4
Match result	Draw	24.1%	4.15	3.50 William Hill	28.6%	-4.5
Match result	Chester	31.0%	3.23	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	-11.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.2%	1.19	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+3.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.8%	6.34	4.20 BetVictor	23.8%	-8.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.2%	1.58	1.65 Bet365	60.6%	+2.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.8%	2.72	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-8.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.1%	2.44	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	+4.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.9%	1.70	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-10.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.7%	1.54	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.3%	2.83	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	-8.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Spennymoor Town favoured against Chester

Our model makes Spennymoor Town 45% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Chester at 31%. The goal projection is 1.79 for Spennymoor Town against 1.47 for Chester — a clear edge to Spennymoor Town on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Spennymoor Town and Chester
Spennymoor Town		Chester
3	Played	2
2-0-1	W-D-L	1-0-1
2.00	Pts / game	1.50
3.00	Goals for / game	1.50
1.33	Goals against / game	2.50
100%	Over 2.5	100%
67%	BTTS	100%
33%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	0%
1-0-0	Home record	0-0-0
1-0-1	Away record	1-0-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Spennymoor Town · Chester

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0	Shots	—
6.0	Shots on target	—
6.0	Corners	—
1.00	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
43	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
21.0	Shots	—
10.0	Shots on target	—
7.0	Corners	—
0.00	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
57	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Spennymoor Town	Metric	Chester
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Spennymoor Town wins: 1
Draws: 0
Chester wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Spennymoor Town v Chester4–12026-10-03