Sparta Rotterdam v 
Fortuna Sittard
Match statistics
| Sparta Rotterdam | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 26 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 680 | Passes | 469 |
| 60% | Possession % | 40% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 89%
- Over 2.5
- 71%
- Over 3.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 70%
- Model pick
- Fortuna Sittard 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.63 – 2.04
Advised bets
Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Fortuna Sittard -0.25
Why this price?
Back Fortuna Sittard -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.68 with Bet365 — Fortuna Sittard must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.39. The offered 2.68 implies only 37%, so the price is 12.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.78 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.63, Fortuna Sittard 2.04.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sparta Rotterdam | 30.9% | 3.24 | 2.05 Betano | 48.8% | -17.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.1% | 4.52 | 3.85 Dafabet | 26.0% | -3.8 |
| Match result | Fortuna Sittard | 47.0% | 2.13 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +27.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 88.5% | 1.13 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | +4.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 11.5% | 8.72 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | -8.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | +10.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 29.0% | 3.44 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | -12.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | 2.55 Betano | 39.2% | +10.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | -12.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +6.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 29.6% | 3.38 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | -10.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Fortuna Sittard favoured against Sparta Rotterdam
Our model makes Sparta Rotterdam 31% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 22% and Fortuna Sittard at 47%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Sparta Rotterdam against 2.04 for Fortuna Sittard — a clear edge to Fortuna Sittard on expected output. A combined 3.67 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-1 7%
- 1-3 6%
This season
| Sparta Rotterdam | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 3-3-6 | W-D-L | 5-5-2 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.67 |
| 1.75 | Goals for / game | 1.67 |
| 2.42 | Goals against / game | 1.67 |
| 92% | Over 2.5 | 58% |
| 83% | BTTS | 75% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 1-2-3 | Home record | 2-2-2 |
| 2-1-3 | Away record | 3-3-0 |
| L1 | Streak | D2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sparta Rotterdam · Fortuna Sittard
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.7 | Shots | 10.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 14.8 |
| 47 | Possession % | 38 |
| 2.16 | xG | 1.01 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 15.5 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.83 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 54 | Possession % | 62 |
| 1.67 | xG | 1.69 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Sparta Rotterdam | Metric | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 3.00 | Goals conceded | 1.80 (better) |
| 2.24 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.83 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Shots on target | 3.75 |
| 16.40 (better) | Total shots | 11.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.40 (better) | Corners | 2.75 |
| 42.6 (better) | Possession % | 39.3 |
| 361 (better) | Passes | 360 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.20 | Fouls | 8.50 (better) |
| 0.67 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sparta Rotterdam wins
- 0
- Draws
- 3
- Fortuna Sittard wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Sparta Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard2–22026-10-28
- Fortuna Sittard v Sparta Rotterdam2–22026-02-07
- Sparta Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard1–12025-11-22