Sparta Praha v Slovácko

5th5–115th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sparta Praha		Slovácko
24	Shots	11
12	Shots on target	5
4	Corners	1
17	Fouls	4
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	1
514	Passes	383
63%	Possession %	37%
1.91	xG	1.15

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Sparta Praha 66%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 2.20 – 0.93

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sparta Praha	65.8%	1.52	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-10.6
Match result	Draw	20.0%	5.00	5.80 Dafabet	17.2%	+2.8
Match result	Slovácko	14.2%	7.03	10.25 Betano	9.8%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.3%	1.22	1.17 Betano	85.5%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.7%	5.65	5.75 BetVictor	17.4%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.4%	1.66	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.6%	2.53	2.65 Betano	37.7%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.1%	2.63	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.9%	1.61	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.2%	1.84	1.93 Betano	51.8%	+2.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.8%	2.18	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sparta Praha favoured against Slovácko

Our model makes Sparta Praha 66% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 20% and Slovácko at 14%. The goal projection is 2.20 for Sparta Praha against 0.93 for Slovácko — a commanding edge to Sparta Praha on expected output. A combined 3.12 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Sparta Praha is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 34% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 3-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sparta Praha and Slovácko
Sparta Praha		Slovácko
13	Played	14
7-2-4	W-D-L	2-4-8
1.77	Pts / game	0.71
1.92	Goals for / game	0.93
1.00	Goals against / game	1.86
62%	Over 2.5	50%
38%	BTTS	64%
46%	Clean sheets	21%
31%	Failed to score	21%
5-0-1	Home record	0-3-3
2-2-3	Away record	2-1-5
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sparta Praha · Slovácko

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.8	Shots	17.4
7.0	Shots on target	5.6
5.8	Corners	3.8
2.20	Cards	2.20
13.4	Fouls	8.8
57	Possession %	51
2.19	xG	1.54
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.4	Shots	13.8
3.4	Shots on target	5.4
3.8	Corners	4.8
1.93	Cards	1.20
11.6	Fouls	17.4
43	Possession %	49
0.86	xG	1.69
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sparta Praha	Metric	Slovácko
3.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.79 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.95
	Big chances
7.25 (better)	Shots on target	1.75
20.75 (better)	Total shots	8.50
	Touches in opp. box
7.75 (better)	Corners	2.50
56.8 (better)	Possession %	45.8
430 (better)	Passes	367
	Tackles
11.50	Fouls	9.75 (better)
2.50	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.50
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sparta Praha wins: 2
Draws: 1
Slovácko wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	13	9	4	0	+25	31	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	13	7	3	3	+7	24	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
5	Sparta Praha	13	7	2	4	+12	23	Sparta Praha won 3 of the last 5
6	Teplice	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Teplice won 2 of the last 5
7	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
8	FK Jablonec	13	6	2	5	-2	20	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
9	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
10	Plzen	13	5	4	4	+7	19	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	13	4	2	7	-4	14	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	13	2	4	7	-10	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5