Southampton v Portsmouth

4th1–011th

11:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Southampton		Portsmouth
7	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	3
2	Corners	4
11	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	3
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
402	Passes	371
51%	Possession %	49%
1.35	xG	0.81

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Southampton 61%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.30 – 1.21

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Southampton	61.3%	1.63	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-0.5
Match result	Draw	20.1%	4.97	4.40 Betano	22.7%	-2.6
Match result	Portsmouth	18.6%	5.36	5.60 Betano	17.9%	+0.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.9%	1.15	1.22 Betano	82.0%	+5.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.1%	7.65	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	-7.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.1%	1.47	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+6.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.9%	3.13	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-10.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.5%	2.15	2.65 Betano	37.7%	+8.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.5%	1.87	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-11.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.6%	1.57	1.70 William Hill	58.8%	+4.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.4%	2.75	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-9.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Southampton favoured against Portsmouth

Our model makes Southampton 61% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 20% and Portsmouth at 19%. The goal projection is 2.30 for Southampton against 1.21 for Portsmouth — a commanding edge to Southampton on expected output. A combined 3.51 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Southampton is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 3-1 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Southampton and Portsmouth
Southampton		Portsmouth
15	Played	15
8-4-3	W-D-L	6-4-5
1.87	Pts / game	1.47
1.93	Goals for / game	1.33
1.00	Goals against / game	1.20
53%	Over 2.5	53%
73%	BTTS	60%
20%	Clean sheets	27%
13%	Failed to score	27%
6-1-0	Home record	4-1-3
2-3-3	Away record	2-3-2
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Southampton · Portsmouth

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.4	Shots	12.4
5.4	Shots on target	3.2
5.3	Corners	5.0
1.89	Cards	2.33
8.1	Fouls	11.4
57	Possession %	49
1.67	xG	1.08
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	10.1
4.3	Shots on target	3.0
4.8	Corners	4.1
2.63	Cards	2.14
13.5	Fouls	10.3
43	Possession %	51
1.21	xG	1.14
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Southampton	Metric	Portsmouth
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
1.40 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.26
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
15.00	Total shots	16.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	8.00 (better)
58.6 (better)	Possession %	51.8
533 (better)	Passes	378
	Tackles
8.20 (better)	Fouls	11.60
3.25	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20	Yellow cards	0.80 (better)
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Southampton wins: 1
Draws: 2
Portsmouth wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5