Sonderjyske v Silkeborg

12th4–09th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sonderjyske		Silkeborg
15	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
9	Corners	1
19	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	1
533	Passes	345
61%	Possession %	39%
1.81	xG	0.63

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Sonderjyske 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.62

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Silkeborg +0.25

2.21Marathonbet · fair 1.98 · qualifies at 2.04+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Silkeborg +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.21 with Marathonbet — Silkeborg starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 48%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.98. The offered 2.21 implies only 45%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sonderjyske 1.71, Silkeborg 1.62.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.6%	2.35	2.42 Betano	41.3%	+1.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.4%	1.74	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-5.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.3%	1.51	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.7%	2.96	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	-5.5
Match result	Sonderjyske	39.9%	2.51	2.52 Betano	39.7%	+0.2
Match result	Draw	24.1%	4.15	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-2.2
Match result	Silkeborg	36.1%	2.77	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.1%	1.18	1.19 Betano	84.0%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.9%	6.70	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-5.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.6%	1.55	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.4%	2.83	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-5.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sonderjyske v Silkeborg: too close to call

Our model makes Sonderjyske 40% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Silkeborg at 36%. The goal projection is 1.71 for Sonderjyske against 1.62 for Silkeborg — almost nothing to Sonderjyske on expected output. A combined 3.33 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Sonderjyske and Silkeborg
Sonderjyske		Silkeborg
14	Played	14
2-3-9	W-D-L	3-6-5
0.64	Pts / game	1.07
1.36	Goals for / game	1.29
2.36	Goals against / game	1.71
71%	Over 2.5	50%
57%	BTTS	64%
14%	Clean sheets	21%
36%	Failed to score	14%
2-1-4	Home record	2-4-1
0-2-5	Away record	1-2-4
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sonderjyske · Silkeborg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	9.6
5.0	Shots on target	4.0
5.2	Corners	2.8
2.33	Cards	2.80
15.2	Fouls	10.6
45	Possession %	50
1.23	xG	0.97
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.5	Shots	13.6
4.8	Shots on target	5.4
4.0	Corners	6.2
1.20	Cards	1.40
10.3	Fouls	14.8
55	Possession %	50
1.92	xG	1.67
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sonderjyske	Metric	Silkeborg
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
2.20	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.26 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.18
	Big chances
4.33	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
13.00 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	3.00
40.3	Possession %	47.5 (better)
352	Passes	457 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	9.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sonderjyske wins: 3
Draws: 0
Silkeborg wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Sonderjyske v Silkeborg4–02026-10-18
Sonderjyske v Silkeborg2–12026-02-16
Silkeborg v Sonderjyske0–22025-08-31

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5