Sonderjyske v 
FC Copenhagen
Match statistics
| Sonderjyske | FC Copenhagen | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 344 | Passes | 677 |
| 34% | Possession % | 66% |
| 0.31 | xG | 1.38 |
- Over 1.5
- 90%
- Over 2.5
- 73%
- Over 3.5
- 53%
- Both score
- 66%
- Model pick
- FC Copenhagen 65%
- Likely score
- 1-2 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.26 – 2.56
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.22 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.10. The offered 2.22 implies only 45%, so the price is 5.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.18 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sonderjyske 1.26, FC Copenhagen 2.56.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5FC Copenhagen +0.25
Why this price?
Back FC Copenhagen +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.25 with Bet365 — FC Copenhagen starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 82% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 84%; we judge it at 83%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.21. The offered 1.25 implies only 80%, so the price is 3.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sonderjyske 1.26, FC Copenhagen 2.56.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sonderjyske | 16.6% | 6.02 | 7.60 Betano | 13.2% | +3.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 18.2% | 5.50 | 5.00 Betano | 20.0% | -1.8 |
| Match result | FC Copenhagen | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.47 Betano | 68.0% | -2.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 89.8% | 1.11 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | +5.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 10.2% | 9.77 | 5.75 BetVictor | 17.4% | -7.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | +10.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | 2.77 Betano | 36.1% | -9.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 2.47 Betano | 40.5% | +12.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | -13.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.80 Betfair | 55.6% | +10.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 33.6% | 2.97 | 2.37 Betano | 42.2% | -8.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Copenhagen favoured against Sonderjyske
Our model makes Sonderjyske 17% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 18% and FC Copenhagen at 65%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Sonderjyske against 2.56 for FC Copenhagen — a commanding edge to FC Copenhagen on expected output. A combined 3.82 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. FC Copenhagen is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 9%
- 1-3 8%
- 1-1 7%
- 0-2 7%
- 0-3 6%
This season
| Sonderjyske | FC Copenhagen | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 2-3-9 | W-D-L | 10-2-2 |
| 0.64 | Pts / game | 2.29 |
| 1.36 | Goals for / game | 2.07 |
| 2.36 | Goals against / game | 0.86 |
| 71% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 57% | BTTS | 43% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 2-1-4 | Home record | 5-2-0 |
| 0-2-5 | Away record | 5-0-2 |
| D1 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sonderjyske · FC Copenhagen
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.0 | Shots | 17.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 15.2 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 45 | Possession % | 59 |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.76 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 13.5 | Shots | 6.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 1.8 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 1.8 |
| 1.20 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 55 | Possession % | 41 |
| 1.92 | xG | 0.69 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Sonderjyske | Metric | FC Copenhagen |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 2.60 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.52 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 14.50 (better) | Total shots | 13.75 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Corners | 5.50 |
| 50.3 (better) | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 433 (better) | Passes | 429 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.75 | Fouls | 14.75 |
| 1.50 | Offsides | 1.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sonderjyske wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- FC Copenhagen wins
- 3
- Goals / game
- 2.75
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Sonderjyske v FC Copenhagen0–22026-11-02
- FC Copenhagen v Sonderjyske3–12026-08-31
- FC Copenhagen v Sonderjyske0–22025-12-07
- Sonderjyske v FC Copenhagen1–22025-09-27
Danish Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | +17 | 32 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | +12 | 32 | FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Viborg | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +9 | 26 | Viborg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 23 | FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Brondby | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | +2 | 22 | Brondby won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Odense | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 | Odense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | AC Horsens | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16 | AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 15 | Aarhus won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Silkeborg | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 15 | Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Lyngby | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -10 | 11 | Lyngby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Randers FC | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 11 | Randers FC won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 9 | Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5 |