Slovenia won 2 of the last 4WLWD2–0FYR Macedonia won 0 of the last 4LLLL
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Slovenia
FYR Macedonia
16
Shots
9
5
Shots on target
1
6
Corners
3
8
Fouls
8
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
502
Passes
478
52%
Possession %
48%
—
xG
—
36%
32%
32%
1 · SloveniaXFYR Macedonia · 2
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
15%
Both score
41%
Model pick
Slovenia 36%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.06 – 0.97
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Slovenia
36.1%
2.77
1.62 Betano
61.7%
-25.6
Match result
Draw
32.2%
3.11
3.80 Betano
26.3%
+5.8
Match result
FYR Macedonia
31.8%
3.15
7.10 Betano
14.1%
+17.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
61.0%
1.64
1.47 Betano
68.0%
-7.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
39.0%
2.56
2.95 Betano
33.9%
+5.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
33.1%
3.02
2.40 Betano
41.7%
-8.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
66.9%
1.50
1.62 Betano
61.7%
+5.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
14.8%
6.74
4.80 BetVictor
20.8%
-6.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
85.2%
1.17
1.22 Betano
82.0%
+3.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
41.4%
2.42
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-0.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
58.6%
1.71
1.65 Betfair
60.6%
-2.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Slovenia v FYR Macedonia: too close to call
Our model makes Slovenia 36% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 32% and FYR Macedonia at 32%. The goal projection is 1.06 for Slovenia against 0.97 for FYR Macedonia — almost nothing to Slovenia on expected output. A combined 2.03 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 33% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slovenia
Metric
FYR Macedonia
1.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.00
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
2.33 (better)
Shots on target
0.80
7.33 (better)
Total shots
3.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.33 (better)
Corners
1.00
38.7 (better)
Possession %
37.8
360
Passes
366 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.33 (better)
Fouls
11.60
2.00
Offsides
0.40 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.00
Yellow cards
1.80 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Slovenia v 
FYR Macedonia