Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5WWLLD2nd1–0Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5LWDDW9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Slovan Liberec
Bohemians 1905
23
Shots
14
8
Shots on target
5
7
Corners
5
10
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
275
Passes
408
51%
Possession %
49%
2.27
xG
1.34
42%
32%
27%
1 · Slovan LiberecXBohemians 1905 · 2
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
14%
Both score
40%
Model pick
Slovan Liberec 42%
Likely score
1-0 15%
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.86
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 2.5
67.5%
1.48
2.05 Betano
48.8%
+18.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
14.4%
6.95
3.10 Betano
32.3%
-17.9
Match result
Slovan Liberec
41.7%
2.40
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-18.9
Match result
Draw
31.7%
3.16
4.30 Dafabet
23.3%
+8.4
Match result
Bohemians 1905
26.6%
3.76
6.00 BetVictor
16.7%
+9.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
60.2%
1.66
1.28 Bet365
78.1%
-17.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
39.8%
2.51
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+16.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
32.5%
3.08
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-20.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
85.6%
1.17
1.42 Betano
70.4%
+15.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
40.0%
2.50
1.98 Betano
50.5%
-10.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
60.0%
1.67
2.00 BetVictor
50.0%
+10.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Slovan Liberec favoured against Bohemians 1905
Our model makes Slovan Liberec 42% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 32% and Bohemians 1905 at 27%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Slovan Liberec against 0.86 for Bohemians 1905 — a clear edge to Slovan Liberec on expected output. A combined 2.01 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 32% and both teams to score at 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-0 15%
0-0 14%
1-1 14%
0-1 11%
2-0 9%
This season
Season records for Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slovan Liberec
Metric
Bohemians 1905
1.00
Goals scored
1.50 (better)
0.75 (better)
Goals conceded
1.25
1.41
Expected goals (xG)
1.79 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.50 (better)
Shots on target
3.33
21.00 (better)
Total shots
14.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
10.00 (better)
Corners
3.67
65.0 (better)
Possession %
47.3
430 (better)
Passes
413
—
Tackles
—
15.50
Fouls
11.33 (better)
3.00
Offsides
2.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
3.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Slovan Liberec v 
Bohemians 1905