Slovácko won 2 of the last 5WLLLW15th1–2Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5LLDWL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Slovácko
Zbrojovka Brno
18
Shots
10
4
Shots on target
5
8
Corners
5
8
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
0
615
Passes
301
54%
Possession %
46%
0.65
xG
2.87
29%
28%
42%
1 · SlováckoXZbrojovka Brno · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
25%
Both score
52%
Model pick
Zbrojovka Brno 42%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.40
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Slovácko
29.5%
3.39
2.50 William Hill
40.0%
-10.5
Match result
Draw
28.1%
3.56
3.40 Betfair
29.4%
-1.3
Match result
Zbrojovka Brno
42.4%
2.36
3.00 Dafabet
33.3%
+9.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
72.5%
1.38
1.32 Betano
75.8%
-3.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
27.5%
3.63
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-1.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
46.2%
2.16
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-5.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
53.8%
1.86
1.88 Betano
53.2%
+0.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.7%
4.04
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-4.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.3%
1.33
1.34 Betano
74.6%
+0.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
51.6%
1.94
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-5.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
48.4%
2.07
2.07 Betano
48.3%
+0.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Zbrojovka Brno favoured against Slovácko
Our model makes Slovácko 29% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Zbrojovka Brno at 42%. The goal projection is 1.12 for Slovácko against 1.40 for Zbrojovka Brno — a clear edge to Zbrojovka Brno on expected output. A combined 2.52 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slovácko
Metric
Zbrojovka Brno
1.40
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
1.00
Goals conceded
1.00
0.83
Expected goals (xG)
1.45 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
2.00
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
9.75
Total shots
16.33 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.50
Corners
5.00 (better)
50.0 (better)
Possession %
47.0
394 (better)
Passes
362
—
Tackles
—
11.75 (better)
Fouls
14.00
1.00 (better)
Offsides
1.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.75
Yellow cards
1.33 (better)
1.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Slovácko v 
Zbrojovka Brno