Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5WWDDW1st1–1Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5DWDWL3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Slavia Praha
Mlada Boleslav
35
Shots
9
7
Shots on target
2
11
Corners
5
10
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
2
534
Passes
323
66%
Possession %
34%
2.95
xG
1.48
59%
22%
19%
1 · Slavia PrahaXMlada Boleslav · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Slavia Praha 59%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.12
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Slavia Praha
58.9%
1.70
1.29 Betano
77.5%
-18.7
Match result
Draw
21.8%
4.59
—
—
—
Match result
Mlada Boleslav
19.4%
5.17
10.00 Betfair
10.0%
+9.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.2%
1.20
1.12 Betano
89.3%
-6.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.8%
5.96
7.00 Bet365
14.3%
+2.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.8%
1.62
1.40 Betfair
71.4%
-9.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.2%
2.62
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
+5.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.5%
2.53
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-10.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.5%
1.65
1.88 Betano
53.2%
+7.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.3%
1.69
1.75 Betfair
57.1%
+2.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.7%
2.46
2.10 William Hill
47.6%
-6.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Slavia Praha favoured against Mlada Boleslav
Our model makes Slavia Praha 59% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Mlada Boleslav at 19%. The goal projection is 2.07 for Slavia Praha against 1.12 for Mlada Boleslav — a commanding edge to Slavia Praha on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
2-0 9%
1-0 8%
3-1 7%
This season
Season records for Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slavia Praha
Metric
Mlada Boleslav
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
1.84 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.17
—
Big chances *
—
5.75 (better)
Shots on target
4.67
17.75 (better)
Total shots
13.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.25
Corners
7.67 (better)
59.3
Possession %
59.7 (better)
460
Passes
547 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
7.33 (better)
1.75
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.33
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Slavia Praha v 
Mlada Boleslav