Slavia Praha v Hradec Králové

1st0–011th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Slavia Praha		Hradec Králové
24	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	1
8	Corners	1
9	Fouls	18
2	Yellow cards	3
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
545	Passes	350
63%	Possession %	37%
1.72	xG	0.52

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Slavia Praha 54%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 0.98

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Slavia Praha	53.9%	1.85	1.42 Dafabet	70.4%	-16.5
Match result	Draw	25.1%	3.99	5.60 Dafabet	17.9%	+7.2
Match result	Hradec Králové	21.0%	4.75	8.50 BetVictor	11.8%	+9.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.5%	1.32	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.5%	4.09	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.4%	1.98	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-11.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.6%	2.02	2.40 Betano	41.7%	+7.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.4%	3.52	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-10.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.6%	1.40	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+7.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.8%	1.93	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.2%	2.07	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-3.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Slavia Praha favoured against Hradec Králové

Our model makes Slavia Praha 54% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Hradec Králové at 21%. The goal projection is 1.71 for Slavia Praha against 0.98 for Hradec Králové — a substantial edge to Slavia Praha on expected output. A combined 2.69 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové
Slavia Praha		Hradec Králové
14	Played	14
10-4-0	W-D-L	5-3-6
2.43	Pts / game	1.29
2.57	Goals for / game	1.21
0.57	Goals against / game	1.29
64%	Over 2.5	57%
50%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	29%
7%	Failed to score	43%
5-3-0	Home record	4-1-3
5-1-0	Away record	1-2-3
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Slavia Praha · Hradec Králové

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
23.8	Shots	14.8
6.2	Shots on target	5.2
9.0	Corners	4.6
1.42	Cards	2.20
11.3	Fouls	11.2
65	Possession %	49
2.17	xG	1.92
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
7.8	Shots	17.0
1.7	Shots on target	5.4
2.3	Corners	6.4
2.08	Cards	1.60
12.3	Fouls	8.6
35	Possession %	51
0.70	xG	1.57
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slavia Praha	Metric	Hradec Králové
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.75 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.94
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.67
17.75 (better)	Total shots	13.00
	Touches in opp. box
7.25 (better)	Corners	7.00
56.0	Possession %	61.0 (better)
425 (better)	Passes	345
	Tackles
11.50	Fouls	8.50 (better)
1.25 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Slavia Praha wins: 0
Draws: 2
Hradec Králové wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.75
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 75%

Slavia Praha v Hradec Králové0–02026-10-17
Hradec Králové v Slavia Praha3–12026-05-17
Hradec Králové v Slavia Praha2–12026-04-19
Slavia Praha v Hradec Králové2–22025-07-20

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5