Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków

17th2–018th

11:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Slask Wroclaw		Wieczysta Kraków
15	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	7
8	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	0
390	Passes	588
46%	Possession %	54%
2.85	xG	1.69

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Slask Wroclaw 40%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.73

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Slask Wroclaw	40.1%	2.50	3.00 Dafabet	33.3%	+6.7
Match result	Draw	23.1%	4.34	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-3.3
Match result	Wieczysta Kraków	36.9%	2.71	2.27 Betano	44.1%	-7.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.2%	1.15	1.18 Betano	84.7%	+2.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.8%	7.82	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-5.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.5%	1.46	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+4.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.5%	3.18	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.0%	2.13	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+5.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.9%	1.89	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.2%	1.45	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.8%	3.24	2.60 Betfair	38.5%	-7.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków: too close to call

Our model makes Slask Wroclaw 40% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 23% and Wieczysta Kraków at 37%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Slask Wroclaw against 1.73 for Wieczysta Kraków — almost nothing to Slask Wroclaw on expected output. A combined 3.53 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Slask Wroclaw and Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw		Wieczysta Kraków
14	Played	14
2-4-8	W-D-L	2-2-10
0.71	Pts / game	0.57
1.21	Goals for / game	1.29
1.79	Goals against / game	2.00
71%	Over 2.5	71%
79%	BTTS	71%
21%	Clean sheets	7%
14%	Failed to score	21%
2-3-2	Home record	1-1-3
0-1-6	Away record	1-1-7
D1	Streak	L5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Slask Wroclaw · Wieczysta Kraków

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.0	Shots	15.3
3.4	Shots on target	4.8
3.8	Corners	6.8
2.60	Cards	2.00
13.0	Fouls	11.3
41	Possession %	52
1.72	xG	1.73
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.8	Shots	17.3
6.0	Shots on target	6.8
7.2	Corners	4.0
2.60	Cards	1.33
10.2	Fouls	8.0
59	Possession %	49
2.27	xG	2.29
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slask Wroclaw	Metric	Wieczysta Kraków
0.80	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
2.60	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.19	Expected goals (xG)	2.06 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.50 (better)
9.00	Total shots	15.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.75	Corners	5.50 (better)
48.5	Possession %	50.8 (better)
430	Passes	517 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	10.75 (better)
1.25 (better)	Offsides	1.75
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Slask Wroclaw wins: 1
Draws: 0
Wieczysta Kraków wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków2–02026-10-25

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5