Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5DLWLL17th0–0Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5DDWDW7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Slask Wroclaw
Piast Gliwice
10
Shots
16
2
Shots on target
2
4
Corners
6
12
Fouls
8
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
420
Passes
521
44%
Possession %
56%
1.87
xG
1.35
35%
24%
42%
1 · Slask WroclawXPiast Gliwice · 2
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
43%
Both score
66%
Model pick
Piast Gliwice 42%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.76
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Slask Wroclaw
34.6%
2.89
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
-2.5
Match result
Draw
23.7%
4.21
3.70 Dafabet
27.0%
-3.3
Match result
Piast Gliwice
41.7%
2.40
2.62 Betano
38.2%
+3.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
85.3%
1.17
1.18 Betano
84.7%
+0.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.7%
6.78
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-5.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
65.1%
1.54
1.58 BetVictor
63.3%
+1.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
34.9%
2.86
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-5.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
43.1%
2.32
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
+3.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
56.9%
1.76
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-6.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
66.4%
1.50
1.53 Betano
65.4%
+1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
33.6%
2.98
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-4.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Piast Gliwice favoured against Slask Wroclaw
Our model makes Slask Wroclaw 35% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 24% and Piast Gliwice at 42%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Slask Wroclaw against 1.76 for Piast Gliwice — a slight edge to Piast Gliwice on expected output. A combined 3.35 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
0-1 6%
This season
Season records for Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slask Wroclaw
Metric
Piast Gliwice
1.20
Goals scored
1.80 (better)
2.40
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.46 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.40
—
Big chances *
—
3.67
Shots on target
5.00 (better)
9.33
Total shots
15.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.67
Corners
3.67 (better)
38.0
Possession %
52.0 (better)
328
Passes
453 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
9.67 (better)
2.67
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.67
Yellow cards
2.33 (better)
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Slask Wroclaw v 
Piast Gliwice