Sirius v IF Elfsborg

2nd2–25th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sirius		IF Elfsborg
13	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	6
6	Corners	8
7	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
510	Passes	464
53%	Possession %	47%
0.96	xG	1.24

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Sirius 51%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.27

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sirius	51.3%	1.95	2.15 William Hill	46.5%	+4.8
Match result	Draw	23.7%	4.22	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-3.0
Match result	IF Elfsborg	25.0%	4.00	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.8%	1.21	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+1.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.2%	5.83	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-5.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.0%	1.64	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+3.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.0%	2.56	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-8.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.7%	2.59	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	+2.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.3%	1.63	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.5%	1.63	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.5%	2.60	2.25 William Hill	44.4%	-6.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sirius favoured against IF Elfsborg

Our model makes Sirius 51% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 24% and IF Elfsborg at 25%. The goal projection is 1.89 for Sirius against 1.27 for IF Elfsborg — a substantial edge to Sirius on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 7%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Sirius and IF Elfsborg
Sirius		IF Elfsborg
28	Played	28
18-4-6	W-D-L	12-10-6
2.07	Pts / game	1.64
2.07	Goals for / game	1.50
1.25	Goals against / game	1.11
64%	Over 2.5	54%
54%	BTTS	64%
32%	Clean sheets	32%
14%	Failed to score	7%
8-3-3	Home record	8-4-2
10-1-3	Away record	4-6-4
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sirius · IF Elfsborg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	14.3
4.2	Shots on target	4.3
7.0	Corners	7.9
1.33	Cards	1.43
10.2	Fouls	8.9
52	Possession %	50
1.96	xG	1.76
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	11.7
3.0	Shots on target	3.4
5.3	Corners	3.3
1.67	Cards	1.57
11.7	Fouls	9.9
48	Possession %	50
1.19	xG	0.83
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sirius	Metric	IF Elfsborg
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
1.56 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.19
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	3.50
10.25	Total shots	11.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.25	Corners	5.50 (better)
43.8	Possession %	52.3 (better)
419	Passes	523 (better)
	Tackles
11.75	Fouls	9.25 (better)
1.50	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.75	Yellow cards	0.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sirius wins: 2
Draws: 1
IF Elfsborg wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Sirius v IF Elfsborg2–22026-10-18
IF Elfsborg v Sirius1–32026-07-19
Sirius v IF Elfsborg4–02025-10-26

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5