Sirius v Halmstad

2nd2–016th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sirius		Halmstad
12	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	1
5	Corners	4
8	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
705	Passes	471
59%	Possession %	41%
2.35	xG	0.36

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Sirius 70%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 2.40 – 0.89

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sirius	70.4%	1.42	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-5.4
Match result	Draw	17.9%	5.59	6.20 Dafabet	16.1%	+1.8
Match result	Halmstad	11.7%	8.53	9.00 Betfair	11.1%	+0.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.4%	1.18	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.6%	6.42	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.9%	1.57	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.1%	2.77	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.8%	2.39	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-5.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.2%	1.72	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.0%	1.85	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.0%	2.17	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sirius favoured against Halmstad

Our model makes Sirius 70% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 18% and Halmstad at 12%. The goal projection is 2.40 for Sirius against 0.89 for Halmstad — a commanding edge to Sirius on expected output. A combined 3.29 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Sirius is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 30% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 3-0 9%; 1-0 9%; 1-1 8%

This season

Season records for Sirius and Halmstad
Sirius		Halmstad
28	Played	28
18-4-6	W-D-L	5-5-18
2.07	Pts / game	0.71
2.07	Goals for / game	0.71
1.25	Goals against / game	1.86
64%	Over 2.5	43%
54%	BTTS	46%
32%	Clean sheets	7%
14%	Failed to score	46%
8-3-3	Home record	4-2-8
10-1-3	Away record	1-3-10
L1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sirius · Halmstad

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	11.3
4.2	Shots on target	4.1
7.0	Corners	4.3
1.33	Cards	1.00
10.2	Fouls	11.6
52	Possession %	40
1.96	xG	0.56
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	16.3
3.0	Shots on target	4.9
5.3	Corners	7.0
1.67	Cards	0.71
11.7	Fouls	7.7
48	Possession %	60
1.19	xG	1.99
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sirius	Metric	Halmstad
1.25	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.25 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.91 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.73
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.25 (better)
15.33 (better)	Total shots	10.25
	Touches in opp. box
8.67 (better)	Corners	3.00
50.7 (better)	Possession %	38.8
486 (better)	Passes	424
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	9.50
1.67	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00	Yellow cards	1.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sirius wins: 3
Draws: 0
Halmstad wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Sirius v Halmstad2–02026-11-03
Halmstad v Sirius0–22026-08-03
Halmstad v Sirius0–12025-08-09

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5