Sirius v AIK Stockholm

2nd1–28th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sirius		AIK Stockholm
23	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
12	Corners	1
11	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
519	Passes	455
54%	Possession %	46%
2.69	xG	1.65

Over 1.5: 91%
Over 2.5: 76%
Over 3.5: 56%
Both score: 71%

Model pick: Sirius 60%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.51 – 1.47

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sirius	60.0%	1.67	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-2.5
Match result	Draw	19.1%	5.24	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	-2.6
Match result	AIK Stockholm	20.9%	4.78	5.10 Betano	19.6%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	91.0%	1.10	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+4.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	9.0%	11.12	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	75.8%	1.32	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+9.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	24.2%	4.14	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-13.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	56.2%	1.78	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+11.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	43.8%	2.28	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-16.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	71.0%	1.41	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+7.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.0%	3.45	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-11.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sirius favoured against AIK Stockholm

Our model makes Sirius 60% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 19% and AIK Stockholm at 21%. The goal projection is 2.51 for Sirius against 1.47 for AIK Stockholm — a commanding edge to Sirius on expected output. A combined 3.98 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 3-1 7%; 1-1 7%; 2-2 6%; 2-0 6%

This season

Season records for Sirius and AIK Stockholm
Sirius		AIK Stockholm
28	Played	28
18-4-6	W-D-L	11-8-9
2.07	Pts / game	1.46
2.07	Goals for / game	1.64
1.25	Goals against / game	1.75
64%	Over 2.5	71%
54%	BTTS	75%
32%	Clean sheets	14%
14%	Failed to score	18%
8-3-3	Home record	5-3-6
10-1-3	Away record	6-5-3
L1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sirius · AIK Stockholm

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	15.0
4.2	Shots on target	5.3
7.0	Corners	4.9
1.33	Cards	1.86
10.2	Fouls	11.9
52	Possession %	56
1.96	xG	1.86
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	15.9
3.0	Shots on target	6.6
5.3	Corners	5.3
1.67	Cards	1.14
11.7	Fouls	12.6
48	Possession %	44
1.19	xG	1.87
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sirius	Metric	AIK Stockholm
1.50	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
0.50 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
1.53	Expected goals (xG)	2.37 (better)
	Big chances
4.67	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
10.33	Total shots	18.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.33 (better)	Corners	6.20
44.0	Possession %	62.0 (better)
437	Passes	613 (better)
	Tackles
11.67	Fouls	11.00 (better)
1.67	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00	Yellow cards	1.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sirius wins: 1
Draws: 0
AIK Stockholm wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Sirius v AIK Stockholm1–22026-10-24
AIK Stockholm v Sirius0–32026-05-30
AIK Stockholm v Sirius2–12025-08-31

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5