Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5WLDLD9th1–1FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5WLDDD4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Silkeborg
FC Nordsjaelland
8
Shots
11
5
Shots on target
4
1
Corners
7
11
Fouls
14
5
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
0
507
Passes
545
47%
Possession %
53%
0.66
xG
0.87
22%
22%
56%
1 · SilkeborgXFC Nordsjaelland · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
61%
Model pick
FC Nordsjaelland 56%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.01
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Silkeborg
21.5%
4.64
5.20 Betano
19.2%
+2.3
Match result
Draw
22.4%
4.46
4.70 Dafabet
21.3%
+1.2
Match result
FC Nordsjaelland
56.0%
1.78
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-2.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.2%
1.20
1.14 Betano
87.7%
-4.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.8%
5.96
6.50 Bet365
15.4%
+1.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.8%
1.62
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-7.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.2%
2.62
2.90 Betano
34.5%
+3.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.5%
2.53
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-8.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.5%
1.65
1.78 Betano
56.2%
+4.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.5%
1.65
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-6.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.5%
2.53
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
+2.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Nordsjaelland favoured against Silkeborg
Our model makes Silkeborg 22% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and FC Nordsjaelland at 56%. The goal projection is 1.18 for Silkeborg against 2.01 for FC Nordsjaelland — a substantial edge to FC Nordsjaelland on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Silkeborg
Metric
FC Nordsjaelland
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.44 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.37
—
Big chances *
—
5.40 (better)
Shots on target
3.33
12.40
Total shots
15.33 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.60
Corners
7.00 (better)
50.4
Possession %
55.0 (better)
501
Passes
557 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.20 (better)
Fouls
10.67
1.40
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.67
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Silkeborg v 
FC Nordsjaelland