Sigma Olomouc v Zbrojovka Brno

5th3–010th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sigma Olomouc		Zbrojovka Brno
24	Shots	5
10	Shots on target	0
10	Corners	7
10	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
453	Passes	339
62%	Possession %	38%
3.22	xG	0.40

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Sigma Olomouc 44%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.24

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Sigma Olomouc -0.75

1.94Marathonbet · fair 1.74 · qualifies at 1.79+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Sigma Olomouc -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.94 with Marathonbet — Sigma Olomouc must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 71%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.74. The offered 1.94 implies only 52%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.56, Zbrojovka Brno 1.24.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sigma Olomouc	44.1%	2.27	1.93 Dafabet	51.8%	-7.7
Match result	Draw	26.1%	3.83	3.75 Dafabet	26.7%	-0.6
Match result	Zbrojovka Brno	29.8%	3.35	4.00 BetVictor	25.0%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.5%	1.29	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.5%	4.44	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.0%	1.89	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.0%	2.13	2.10 Betano	47.6%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.8%	3.25	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.2%	1.45	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.7%	1.76	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.3%	2.31	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-2.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sigma Olomouc favoured against Zbrojovka Brno

Our model makes Sigma Olomouc 44% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Zbrojovka Brno at 30%. The goal projection is 1.56 for Sigma Olomouc against 1.24 for Zbrojovka Brno — a clear edge to Sigma Olomouc on expected output. A combined 2.80 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Sigma Olomouc and Zbrojovka Brno
Sigma Olomouc		Zbrojovka Brno
14	Played	14
7-3-4	W-D-L	6-2-6
1.71	Pts / game	1.43
1.57	Goals for / game	1.21
1.43	Goals against / game	1.57
71%	Over 2.5	57%
57%	BTTS	50%
21%	Clean sheets	14%
21%	Failed to score	36%
4-1-1	Home record	4-1-3
3-2-3	Away record	2-1-3
L1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sigma Olomouc · Zbrojovka Brno

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.5	Shots	9.4
4.7	Shots on target	3.2
4.8	Corners	6.0
1.27	Cards	1.20
7.5	Fouls	11.8
48	Possession %	46
1.29	xG	1.28
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.8	Shots	17.0
5.8	Shots on target	6.6
7.3	Corners	7.4
2.00	Cards	1.40
12.7	Fouls	11.4
52	Possession %	54
1.75	xG	1.70
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sigma Olomouc	Metric	Zbrojovka Brno
1.80	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.91	Expected goals (xG)	1.97 (better)
	Big chances
4.25	Shots on target	4.67 (better)
12.25	Total shots	13.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	5.00 (better)
46.5	Possession %	47.0 (better)
417 (better)	Passes	367
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	13.33
2.25	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	0.67 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sigma Olomouc wins: 1
Draws: 0
Zbrojovka Brno wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Sigma Olomouc v Zbrojovka Brno3–02026-10-31

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5