Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5LWDWD5th1–0Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5WWLLD2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Sigma Olomouc
Slovan Liberec
12
Shots
18
3
Shots on target
6
4
Corners
11
6
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
5
442
Passes
364
43%
Possession %
57%
1.02
xG
1.13
32%
29%
39%
1 · Sigma OlomoucXSlovan Liberec · 2
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
22%
Both score
49%
Model pick
Slovan Liberec 39%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.27
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Sigma Olomouc
32.3%
3.10
2.90 BetVictor
34.5%
-2.2
Match result
Draw
28.9%
3.46
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
+0.3
Match result
Slovan Liberec
38.8%
2.58
2.72 Betano
36.8%
+2.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
69.8%
1.43
1.31 Betano
76.3%
-6.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
30.2%
3.31
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
+2.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
43.0%
2.32
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-9.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
57.0%
1.75
1.95 Betano
51.3%
+5.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
22.1%
4.52
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-8.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
77.9%
1.28
1.34 Betano
74.6%
+3.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.3%
2.03
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-7.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
50.7%
1.97
2.10 BetVictor
47.6%
+3.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sigma Olomouc v Slovan Liberec: too close to call
Our model makes Sigma Olomouc 32% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 29% and Slovan Liberec at 39%. The goal projection is 1.13 for Sigma Olomouc against 1.27 for Slovan Liberec — a slight edge to Slovan Liberec on expected output. A combined 2.40 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 14%
0-1 11%
0-0 10%
1-0 10%
1-2 8%
This season
Season records for Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sigma Olomouc
Metric
Slovan Liberec
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
2.00
1.40
Goals conceded
0.20 (better)
1.08
Expected goals (xG)
1.31 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
9.33
Total shots
14.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.33
Corners
4.00 (better)
48.3 (better)
Possession %
41.0
397 (better)
Passes
304
—
Tackles
—
9.67 (better)
Fouls
18.33
1.67
Offsides
1.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.67 (better)
Yellow cards
2.33
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Sigma Olomouc v 
Slovan Liberec