Sichuan Jiuniu v Shanghai Shenhua

13th2–16th

07:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sichuan Jiuniu		Shanghai Shenhua
14	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	4
1	Corners	4
12	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	2
255	Passes	446
36%	Possession %	64%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Shanghai Shenhua 48%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 2.05

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sichuan Jiuniu	30.2%	3.31	3.70 Bet365	27.0%	+3.2
Match result	Draw	22.1%	4.52	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-2.9
Match result	Shanghai Shenhua	47.7%	2.10	1.95 Dafabet	51.3%	-3.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.4%	1.13	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.6%	8.64	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.8%	1.41	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+0.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.2%	3.42	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-5.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.7%	2.01	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.3%	1.99	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-5.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.1%	1.43	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.9%	3.35	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-4.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Shanghai Shenhua favoured against Sichuan Jiuniu

Our model makes Sichuan Jiuniu 30% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Shanghai Shenhua at 48%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Sichuan Jiuniu against 2.05 for Shanghai Shenhua — a clear edge to Shanghai Shenhua on expected output. A combined 3.66 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua
Sichuan Jiuniu		Shanghai Shenhua
30	Played	30
9-6-15	W-D-L	15-5-10
1.10	Pts / game	1.67
1.37	Goals for / game	2.23
1.77	Goals against / game	1.67
57%	Over 2.5	73%
60%	BTTS	70%
13%	Clean sheets	17%
27%	Failed to score	13%
7-3-5	Home record	8-2-5
2-3-10	Away record	7-3-5
D1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sichuan Jiuniu · Shanghai Shenhua

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	20.5
3.5	Shots on target	7.8
4.0	Corners	5.5
3.00	Cards	1.00
12.5	Fouls	13.5
50	Possession %	57
0.85	xG	4.18
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	12.8
5.8	Shots on target	5.0
5.0	Corners	4.0
1.67	Cards	1.75
13.0	Fouls	11.0
51	Possession %	43
2.36	xG	2.22
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sichuan Jiuniu	Metric	Shanghai Shenhua
1.20	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.33	Expected goals (xG)	3.32 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	8.00 (better)
14.20	Total shots	17.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.40	Corners	5.00 (better)
46.8 (better)	Possession %	44.3
351	Passes	365 (better)
	Tackles
15.20	Fouls	10.67 (better)
1.75	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sichuan Jiuniu wins: 2
Draws: 0
Shanghai Shenhua wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Sichuan Jiuniu v Shanghai Shenhua2–12026-10-24
Shanghai Shenhua v Sichuan Jiuniu1–22026-05-24
Shanghai Shenhua v Sichuan Jiuniu1–02025-10-31

Chinese Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Beijing Guoan	30	15	10	5	+22	55	Beijing Guoan won 4 of the last 5
2	Shandong Luneng	30	16	5	9	+11	53	Shandong Luneng won 3 of the last 5
3	Chengdu Better City	30	15	7	8	+15	52	Chengdu Better City won 0 of the last 5
4	Dalian Zhixing	30	16	4	10	+5	52	Dalian Zhixing won 5 of the last 5
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	30	14	8	8	+19	50	SHANGHAI SIPG won 4 of the last 5
6	Shanghai Shenhua	30	15	5	10	+17	50	Shanghai Shenhua won 4 of the last 5
7	Yunnan Yukun	30	12	7	11	-2	43	Yunnan Yukun won 2 of the last 5
8	Hangzhou Greentown	30	12	6	12	+1	42	Hangzhou Greentown won 3 of the last 5
9	Tianjin Teda	30	11	8	11	+2	41	Tianjin Teda won 3 of the last 5
10	Qingdao Youth Island	30	8	15	7	-10	39	Qingdao Youth Island won 0 of the last 5
11	Chongqing Tongliang Long	30	8	12	10	-4	36	Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 of the last 5
12	Henan Jianye	30	8	10	12	-8	34	Henan Jianye won 0 of the last 5
13	Sichuan Jiuniu	30	9	6	15	-12	33	Sichuan Jiuniu won 1 of the last 5
14	Shenyang Urban	30	8	5	17	-16	29	Shenyang Urban won 1 of the last 5
15	Wuhan Three Towns	30	5	12	13	-12	27	Wuhan Three Towns won 0 of the last 5
16	Qingdao Jonoon	30	6	4	20	-28	22	Qingdao Jonoon won 0 of the last 5