Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers

15th1–017th

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Shrewsbury		Bristol Rovers
11	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	1
6	Corners	3
15	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	3
2	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
275	Passes	344
45%	Possession %	55%
1.66	xG	0.53

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Bristol Rovers 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.48

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Shrewsbury	28.8%	3.47	3.20 Dafabet	31.3%	-2.5
Match result	Draw	27.0%	3.70	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-2.4
Match result	Bristol Rovers	44.2%	2.26	2.35 Betano	42.6%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.5%	1.34	1.35 BetVictor	74.1%	+0.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.5%	3.92	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.9%	2.04	2.08 Bet365	48.1%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.1%	1.96	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.1%	3.69	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.9%	1.37	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	-4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.4%	1.87	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.6%	2.15	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-3.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bristol Rovers favoured against Shrewsbury

Our model makes Shrewsbury 29% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 27% and Bristol Rovers at 44%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Shrewsbury against 1.48 for Bristol Rovers — a clear edge to Bristol Rovers on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers
Shrewsbury		Bristol Rovers
14	Played	14
5-3-6	W-D-L	5-1-8
1.29	Pts / game	1.14
1.21	Goals for / game	1.21
1.57	Goals against / game	1.64
50%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	43%
21%	Clean sheets	36%
29%	Failed to score	29%
3-1-3	Home record	4-1-2
2-2-3	Away record	1-0-6
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Shrewsbury · Bristol Rovers

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	14.3
5.6	Shots on target	4.3
6.3	Corners	4.7
3.29	Cards	2.29
14.4	Fouls	15.6
47	Possession %	50
1.88	xG	1.34
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.3	Shots	12.4
4.0	Shots on target	4.3
4.0	Corners	3.7
1.86	Cards	2.57
12.7	Fouls	12.0
53	Possession %	50
1.31	xG	1.68
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Shrewsbury	Metric	Bristol Rovers
1.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
3.10 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.50
	Big chances
3.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
12.40 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	5.20
41.8	Possession %	45.4 (better)
285	Passes	303 (better)
	Tackles
15.40	Fouls	12.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.75
	Throw-ins
3.40	Yellow cards	2.40 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Shrewsbury wins: 1
Draws: 0
Bristol Rovers wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers1–02026-10-17
Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury1–02026-03-17
Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers0–32026-01-01

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5