Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5LLLLD15th0–1Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5WWWDL14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Shimizu S-pulse
Tokyo Verdy
13
Shots
6
4
Shots on target
1
10
Corners
3
12
Fouls
14
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
3
378
Passes
268
59%
Possession %
41%
0.42
xG
0.48
41%
27%
31%
1 · Shimizu S-pulseXTokyo Verdy · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Shimizu S-pulse 41%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.21
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Shimizu S-pulse
41.3%
2.42
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
+2.1
Match result
Draw
27.2%
3.67
3.25 Dafabet
30.8%
-3.6
Match result
Tokyo Verdy
31.5%
3.17
3.30 Dafabet
30.3%
+1.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
74.7%
1.34
1.44 Betano
69.4%
+5.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
25.3%
3.95
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
-9.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.2%
2.03
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+7.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.8%
1.97
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
-11.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.3%
3.67
4.60 BetVictor
21.7%
+5.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.7%
1.38
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-9.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.0%
1.85
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
+4.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.0%
2.18
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-7.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Shimizu S-pulse favoured against Tokyo Verdy
Our model makes Shimizu S-pulse 41% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Tokyo Verdy at 31%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Shimizu S-pulse against 1.21 for Tokyo Verdy — a slight edge to Shimizu S-pulse on expected output. A combined 2.64 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
0-1 8%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for Shimizu S-pulse and Tokyo Verdy
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Shimizu S-pulse
Metric
Tokyo Verdy
1.00
Goals scored
1.00
2.80
Goals conceded
1.80 (better)
0.71
Expected goals (xG)
0.86 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.25 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
9.25 (better)
Total shots
8.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00 (better)
Corners
3.00
37.0 (better)
Possession %
36.0
314 (better)
Passes
301
—
Tackles
—
12.75 (better)
Fouls
13.50
0.67 (better)
Offsides
3.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
1.75
0.33
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Shimizu S-pulse v 
Tokyo Verdy