Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia

15th0–54th

10:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Shimizu S-pulse		Machida Zelvia
6	Shots	25
2	Shots on target	12
4	Corners	5
18	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	0
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
274	Passes	553
33%	Possession %	67%
0.21	xG	3.87

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Machida Zelvia 51%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.58

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Shimizu S-pulse -0.5

3.30Bet365 · fair 3.07 · qualifies at 3.16+ · 0.81u

Why this price?

Back Shimizu S-pulse -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.30 with Bet365 — Shimizu S-pulse must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 23% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.07. The offered 3.30 implies only 30%, so the price is 7.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.81 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Shimizu S-pulse 0.97, Machida Zelvia 1.58.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Shimizu S-pulse	22.6%	4.42	4.10 Bet365	24.4%	-1.8
Match result	Draw	26.4%	3.78	3.40 Dafabet	29.4%	-3.0
Match result	Machida Zelvia	51.0%	1.96	2.13 Dafabet	46.9%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.8%	1.37	1.49 BetVictor	67.1%	+5.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.2%	3.68	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-3.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.8%	2.14	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	+0.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.2%	1.88	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.2%	3.96	5.25 BetVictor	19.0%	+6.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.8%	1.34	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.8%	2.01	2.15 BetVictor	46.5%	+3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.2%	1.99	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-1.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Machida Zelvia favoured against Shimizu S-pulse

Our model makes Shimizu S-pulse 23% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Machida Zelvia at 51%. The goal projection is 0.97 for Shimizu S-pulse against 1.58 for Machida Zelvia — a substantial edge to Machida Zelvia on expected output. A combined 2.55 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 12%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia
Shimizu S-pulse		Machida Zelvia
14	Played	14
4-2-8	W-D-L	8-5-1
1.00	Pts / game	2.07
0.71	Goals for / game	2.14
1.64	Goals against / game	0.71
43%	Over 2.5	57%
36%	BTTS	50%
14%	Clean sheets	50%
50%	Failed to score	21%
2-2-4	Home record	3-3-1
2-0-4	Away record	5-2-0
L4	Streak	D3

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Shimizu S-pulse · Machida Zelvia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.5	Shots	15.3
2.8	Shots on target	6.7
5.3	Corners	5.2
1.67	Cards	1.17
12.0	Fouls	10.2
43	Possession %	58
0.64	xG	1.75
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	15.0
5.5	Shots on target	5.0
5.3	Corners	5.3
1.67	Cards	1.00
12.7	Fouls	12.3
57	Possession %	43
1.59	xG	0.94
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Shimizu S-pulse	Metric	Machida Zelvia
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
1.60 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.43
	Big chances
3.67 (better)	Shots on target	3.50
11.33 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.33	Corners	5.50 (better)
50.7 (better)	Possession %	49.0
410	Passes	451 (better)
	Tackles
9.67	Fouls	8.00 (better)
0.33 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
1.33	Yellow cards	0.50 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Shimizu S-pulse wins: 0
Draws: 0
Machida Zelvia wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia0–52026-10-21

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5