Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka

15th2–218th

04:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Shimizu S-pulse		Gamba Osaka
12	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	4
9	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
265	Passes	497
35%	Possession %	65%
0.77	xG	1.23

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Gamba Osaka 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.41

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Gamba Osaka

3.15Dafabet · fair 2.95 · qualifies at 3.03+ · 0.81u

Why this price?

Back Gamba Osaka to win at 3.15 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.95. The offered 3.15 implies only 32%, so the price is 6.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.81 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Shimizu S-pulse 1.29, Gamba Osaka 1.41.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Shimizu S-pulse	33.8%	2.96	2.28 Dafabet	43.9%	-10.1
Match result	Draw	27.0%	3.71	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-1.6
Match result	Gamba Osaka	39.3%	2.55	3.15 Dafabet	31.7%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.8%	1.32	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.2%	4.13	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.7%	1.97	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.3%	2.03	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.7%	3.49	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.3%	1.40	1.37 Betano	73.0%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.5%	1.80	1.70 William Hill	58.8%	-3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.5%	2.25	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	+0.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka: too close to call

Our model makes Shimizu S-pulse 34% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Gamba Osaka at 39%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Shimizu S-pulse against 1.41 for Gamba Osaka — a slight edge to Gamba Osaka on expected output. A combined 2.70 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse		Gamba Osaka
14	Played	14
4-2-8	W-D-L	2-6-6
1.00	Pts / game	0.86
0.71	Goals for / game	1.14
1.64	Goals against / game	1.71
43%	Over 2.5	50%
36%	BTTS	57%
14%	Clean sheets	14%
50%	Failed to score	43%
2-2-4	Home record	1-2-3
2-0-4	Away record	1-4-3
L4	Streak	L1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Shimizu S-pulse · Gamba Osaka

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.5	Shots	14.2
2.8	Shots on target	5.7
5.3	Corners	4.3
1.67	Cards	1.50
12.0	Fouls	13.8
43	Possession %	51
0.64	xG	1.18
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	14.3
5.5	Shots on target	4.5
5.3	Corners	4.3
1.67	Cards	2.00
12.7	Fouls	10.8
57	Possession %	49
1.59	xG	1.08
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Shimizu S-pulse	Metric	Gamba Osaka
1.60	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.85	Expected goals (xG)	2.02 (better)
	Big chances
3.67	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
12.67 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
4.67 (better)	Corners	2.50
52.3	Possession %	55.7 (better)
412 (better)	Passes	333
	Tackles
9.33	Fouls	9.33
0.33 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Shimizu S-pulse wins: 0
Draws: 2
Gamba Osaka wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka2–22026-10-17
Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka1–22026-05-24
Gamba Osaka v Shimizu S-pulse2–22026-02-28

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5