Sheppey United v 
Chertsey Town
- Over 1.5
- 84%
- Over 2.5
- 63%
- Over 3.5
- 41%
- Both score
- 64%
- Model pick
- Sheppey United 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.84 – 1.42
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sheppey United | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Draw | 23.9% | 4.18 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Chertsey Town | 29.3% | 3.42 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 15.8% | 6.32 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 36.9% | 2.71 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 35.7% | 2.80 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sheppey United favoured against Chertsey Town
Our model makes Sheppey United 47% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Chertsey Town at 29%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Sheppey United against 1.42 for Chertsey Town — a clear edge to Sheppey United on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Sheppey United | Chertsey Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Played | 5 |
| 2-0-1 | W-D-L | 3-1-1 |
| 2.00 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 33% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 33% | BTTS | 60% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 0-0-1 | Home record | 1-1-0 |
| 2-0-0 | Away record | 2-0-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sheppey United · Chertsey Town
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| — | Shots | 0.0 |
|---|---|---|
| — | Shots on target | 0.0 |
| — | Corners | 0.0 |
| — | Cards | 0.00 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| — | Possession % | 50 |
| — | xG | — |
| — | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| — | Shots | 0.0 |
|---|---|---|
| — | Shots on target | 0.0 |
| — | Corners | 0.0 |
| — | Cards | 0.00 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| — | Possession % | 50 |
| — | xG | — |
| — | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Sheppey United | Metric | Chertsey Town |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 3.00 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | ||
| Total shots | ||
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | ||
| Possession % | ||
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | ||
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sheppey United wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Chertsey Town wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Sheppey United v Chertsey Town0–22026-10-03