Shenyang Urban won 1 of the last 5LLWDL14th2–4Hangzhou Greentown won 3 of the last 5WWLLW8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Shenyang Urban
Hangzhou Greentown
17
Shots
12
5
Shots on target
8
1
Corners
0
9
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
0
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
2
456
Passes
442
51%
Possession %
49%
—
xG
—
35%
21%
44%
1 · Shenyang UrbanXHangzhou Greentown · 2
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
77%
Over 3.5
57%
Both score
75%
Model pick
Hangzhou Greentown 44%
Likely score
1-2 8%
Expected goals
1.90 – 2.14
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Shenyang Urban
34.7%
2.88
2.01 Dafabet
49.8%
-15.1
Match result
Draw
21.2%
4.72
4.33 Betfair
23.1%
-1.9
Match result
Hangzhou Greentown
44.2%
2.27
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+13.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
91.5%
1.09
1.07 Betano
93.5%
-2.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
8.5%
11.75
10.00 Bet365
10.0%
-1.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
76.8%
1.30
1.36 Betano
73.5%
+3.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
23.2%
4.30
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-0.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
57.4%
1.74
1.65 Betfair
60.6%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
42.6%
2.35
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+0.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
75.4%
1.33
1.29 Betfair
77.5%
-2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
24.6%
4.06
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-1.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hangzhou Greentown favoured against Shenyang Urban
Our model makes Shenyang Urban 35% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Hangzhou Greentown at 44%. The goal projection is 1.90 for Shenyang Urban against 2.14 for Hangzhou Greentown — a slight edge to Hangzhou Greentown on expected output. A combined 4.04 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 75%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-2 8%
1-1 8%
2-2 7%
2-1 7%
1-3 5%
This season
Season records for Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Shenyang Urban
Metric
Hangzhou Greentown
1.20
Goals scored
2.80 (better)
2.60
Goals conceded
1.60 (better)
1.38
Expected goals (xG)
2.57 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
2.20
Shots on target
6.40 (better)
13.00
Total shots
15.80 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.80 (better)
Corners
5.40
56.8 (better)
Possession %
51.0
444 (better)
Passes
381
—
Tackles
—
13.60
Fouls
11.60 (better)
3.00
Offsides
2.80 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
2.20 (better)
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Shenyang Urban v 
Hangzhou Greentown