Sheffield Utd v 
Lincoln
Match statistics
| Sheffield Utd | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 475 | Passes | 363 |
| 56% | Possession % | 44% |
| 0.61 | xG | 1.34 |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 62%
- Model pick
- Lincoln 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.38 – 1.72
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Sheffield Utd -0.75
Why this price?
Back Sheffield Utd -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.19 with Marathonbet — Sheffield Utd must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 24% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 68%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.99. The offered 2.19 implies only 46%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.38, Lincoln 1.72.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.20 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.05. The offered 3.20 implies only 31%, so the price is 4.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.55 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.38, Lincoln 1.72.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sheffield Utd | 30.3% | 3.30 | 2.22 Dafabet | 45.0% | -14.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.8% | 4.04 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -3.8 |
| Match result | Lincoln | 45.0% | 2.22 | 3.50 Betano | 28.6% | +16.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | +7.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.8% | 5.62 | 3.55 Betano | 28.2% | -10.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | +10.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 40.1% | 2.50 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -12.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | +10.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | -11.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +6.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | -9.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lincoln favoured against Sheffield Utd
Our model makes Sheffield Utd 30% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and Lincoln at 45%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Sheffield Utd against 1.72 for Lincoln — a clear edge to Lincoln on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 7%
- 0-1 7%
- 0-2 7%
This season
| Sheffield Utd | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 6-4-5 | W-D-L | 4-3-8 |
| 1.47 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.40 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.27 | Goals against / game | 1.73 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 60% | BTTS | 53% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 3-2-2 | Home record | 1-2-4 |
| 3-2-3 | Away record | 3-1-4 |
| L1 | Streak | L3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sheffield Utd · Lincoln
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.3 | Shots | 11.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 2.9 |
| 2.02 | Cards | 2.87 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 38 |
| 1.35 | xG | 1.19 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 11.3 | Shots | 16.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 2.52 | Cards | 2.78 |
| 14.1 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 62 |
| 1.07 | xG | 1.66 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Sheffield Utd | Metric | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.56 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.40 (better) | Shots on target | 3.20 |
| 8.40 | Total shots | 10.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.20 (better) | Corners | 2.60 |
| 44.8 (better) | Possession % | 38.2 |
| 384 (better) | Passes | 286 |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 | Fouls | 12.40 (better) |
| 3.40 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.80 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sheffield Utd wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Lincoln wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 0%
- Sheffield Utd v Lincoln3–02026-10-10
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |